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Party Affairs

The Road to the Sixteenth Party Congress

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

The scheduling of the Sixteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party by a recent Central Committee plenum inaugurates a prolonged process of preparations that will dominate leadership politics over the coming year and color Beijing's approach to policy in all areas. Expected to convene in the fall next year, the congress will lay the foundation for subsequent policy departures and put into place a new generation of top Party leaders. Judging by the themes of leadership statements and press commentary in recent months, the focus of the Congress is likely to be reform of the Communist Party itself so that it can better manage China's increasingly market-driven economy and the impact of China's upcoming entry into the WTO.

Political Reform

Is Political Reform Ahead?—Beijing Confronts Problems Facing Society—and the CCP

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

On July 1, Jiang Zemin, general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), called for admitting private entrepreneurs into the party. Although this decision in some ways brought party policy into line with reality, it was an important announcement not only because it reversed a formal party decision made in the wake of the Tiananmen crackdown but also because it opened the door to a wide range of possible political changes. Jiang's announcement may be only the tip of the iceberg. Recent publications have suggested that, in the run-up to the Sixteenth Party Congress (scheduled for fall 2002), party leaders are thinking systematically about the changes it needs to make to cope with the very rapid socioeconomic changes in Chinese society. Although the clear goal is to keep the CCP in power, it is evident that party leaders at the highest levels understand that they can only stay in power by changing. Political change is not without danger. "Leftists" in the party have excoriated Jiang's announcement, and there is widespread resentment over inequalities that have opened up in recent years in Chinese society. If the party is widely seen as speaking only for the well to do—a perception that is already widespread—popular discontent is likely to continue to spread.

Military Affairs

Civil-Military Relations and the EP-3 Crisis: A Content Analysis

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

The conduct of the Chinese government during the recent EP-3 crisis raised important questions about the state of civil-military relations in China. Observers at the time were divided as to whether the comments of senior military leaders and editorials in military newspapers were different in content than their civilian counterparts. They were also divided over whether these differences reflected only variations in propaganda or actual institutional divergence. In addition, most analysts seemed convinced that the military monopolized critical information flows to the leadership, especially data about the causes of the collision and the lack of mayday calls by the EP-3, thus tying the hands of Foreign Ministry negotiators and perhaps even unnecessarily drawing out the crisis. Using interviews, some secondary sources, and detailed content analysis of civilian and military media during the crisis, this essay explores these themes.

Military Affairs

Zhang Wannian: A Political Biography

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

The political biography of Zhang that follows is the first of a series of sketches of politically important Chinese military leaders.

Tokyo Confronts Terror

by David Lehenyvia Policy Review
Saturday, December 1, 2001

Japan’s past drastically complicates dealing with the threat

A "Yankee Imperialist" Offers Asia a Little Help

by Robert J. Barrovia Hoover Digest
Tuesday, October 30, 2001

How Asian nations, still suffering from the economic meltdown of 1997, can revive their economies at last. By Hoover fellow Robert J. Barro.

Who’s Afraid of Kim Jong Il?

via Hoover Digest
Tuesday, October 30, 2001

As the Bush administration struggles to find a way of dealing with North Korea and its enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Il, longtime Korea watcher and Hoover fellow Robert J. Myers offers some suggestions of his own.

THE GHOST OF COMMUNISM PAST: Reform in Russia and China

with Michael McFaul, Coit Blacker, Orville Schellvia Uncommon Knowledge
Tuesday, October 23, 2001

After two decades of reform, Stalin and Mao wouldn't recognize Russia and China today. But each state has taken a different path away from their communist past. Russia has emphasized democratic reforms while enduring economic instability. China has promoted economic growth based on market reforms, while maintaining tight control over politics. Which path will prove to be more successful, Russia's or China's?

DIRE STRAITS: Whither Japan?

with Steven Clemons, T.J. Pempel, Steven Vogelvia Uncommon Knowledge
Friday, August 31, 2001

Following World War II, Japan reinvented itself both politically, as it adopted the institutions of democratic government, and economically, as it became a dominant producer and exporter of consumer goods. These reforms were so successful that, ten years ago, experts were predicting that Japan would overtake the United States as an economic superpower. Instead, Japan experienced a decade of recession and economic stagnation that continues still. What happened? Is this a sign of serious structural problems in Japan's political and economic institutions? In other words, is it time for Japan to reinvent itself once again? If so, how should the United States alter its relationship with a new Japan?

Analysis and Commentary

Preparing for the Computer Wars

by Bruce Berkowitzvia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, August 13, 2001

The government needs to adopt policies that let U.S. companies remain predominant in the global information economy.