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The Extraordinary Rise In Trade Policy Uncertainty

by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davisvia (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Tariff hikes, tariff threats, and tariff retaliations have become a major source of economic uncertainty, stock market volatility and concerns about the global outlook (e.g. Blanchard 2019, Crowley 2019, Evenett and Fritz 2019, Fajgelbaum et al. 2019, Jacks and Novy 2019). This column draws on three initiatives that aim to quantify the rise in trade policy uncertainty and its role in stock market volatility. 

In the News

The West In Disarray

quoting Niall Fergusonvia The Kingston Whig-Standard
Monday, September 16, 2019

The idea of the West is difficult to define. It has known many incarnations over the centuries. In the fourth century CE, it was used to designate the division between the western and eastern Roman empires. In the later Middle Ages, it was used to separate the western and eastern Christian Churches, the Roman Catholic and the Orthodox. In its modern incarnation, it dates back some 600 years.


The Ascent Of Digital Money

by Niall Fergusonvia The Boston Globe
Monday, September 16, 2019

“How would you like to pay for that, sir?” For most of my lifetime, there have been three possible answers to that question: cash, a check, or a plastic card. Go to Beijing, however, and you will see very few payments in those forms. People pay with their phones, using digital payment systems created by the two biggest Chinese tech companies, Alibaba and Tencent.

Elizabeth Economy: Hearing on “U.S.-China Relations in 2019: A Year in Review”

featuring Elizabeth Economyvia The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Elizabeth Economy testifies at a hearing on “U.S.-China Relations in 2019: A Year in Review."


Democracy Works: China's Threat To Democracy

interview with Larry Diamondvia WPSU Penn State
Monday, September 16, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow Larry Diamond talks about the threat China's model of authoritarian capitalism poses to liberal democracy in the United States and around the world. Economics drives politics, and it's easy to admire China's growth while looking past things like increasing surveillance and lack of respect for norms and the rule of law.

In the News

China's Triumph Over Poverty Was Spearheaded By Privatization

quoting Bjorn Lomborgvia Foundation for Economic Education
Saturday, September 14, 2019

In a recent interview with The Hill, presidential contender Sen. Bernie Sanders praised China, stating the nation had made "more progress in addressing extreme poverty than any country in the history of civilization." The remark generated a slew of headlines from right-leaning media, some of which mocked the Vermont senator for praising China. As many undoubtedly know, however, China’s progress in eradicating extreme poverty in recent decades is unprecedented.

In the News

US China On The Verge Of Entering Into A “Cold War” On Trade Tariffs

quoting Niall Fergusonvia Industry News Info
Thursday, September 12, 2019

A senior fellow from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution named Niall Ferguson commented that the two leading economies in the world have already brought themselves to the first step of a long Cold War. Ferguson said this on September 6, 2019 to Steve Sedgwick at Italy’s Ambrosetti Forum. He further said that under the current circumstance, it was impossible for President Trump to put a stop to the trade conflict between U.S and China and mend the damage done.


Condoleezza Rice Talks New Book That Compares The Cold War To Present Day

interview with Condoleezza Ricevia Fox Business
Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow Condoleezza Rice discusses her new book To Build A Better World: Choices to End the Cold War and Create a Global Commonwealth, as well as the issues with China and the trade war.  

In the News

China Will Emerge As Winner In Trade War, Says Global Strategist

quoting Niall Fergusonvia Business Times
Wednesday, September 11, 2019

China would be the one sounding the trumpet when the ongoing trade war between the two largest economies ends. While currently there is no end in sight for the escalating tit for tat between China and the United States, Independent Strategy's President and Global Strategic David Roche believed it would work out for the best for the Asian powerhouse.

In the News

Executive Surveys Forecast Business Outcomes

cited Steven J. Davisvia Chicago Booth Review
Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Consider the 2008–09 financial crisis, the June 2016 Brexit referendum, or recent trade tensions between the US and China. Developments such as these create uncertainty and undermine business confidence, hurting capital investment and growth. Indeed, unresolved trade tensions lowered gross investment in the US manufacturing sector by 4 percent, or $22 billion, in 2018, according to the January 2019 Survey of Business Uncertainty.