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Analysis and Commentary

A Russian Revival?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Tuesday, November 13, 2001

Russia's revival, according to The Wall Street Journal, is due largely to its refusing fresh IMF assistance and advice.

Analysis and Commentary

The New Protectionism at Work in Russia's Auto Industry

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, August 15, 2001

The Russian government, reinforced by a mid-July IMF Report, emphasized domestic industrial output as a principal source of growth in 2000 and 2001. Future growth, on this view, requires sustaining domestic production, which means holding down imports.

Analysis and Commentary

The New IMF Orthodoxy for Russia Is the Old Protectionism for Africa

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Tuesday, July 31, 2001

The IMF released its mid-year report on the Russian Federation in July 2001. It recommends a new protectionism modeled on the lines of the old (failed) African policy of import substitution that was prevalent in the 1960s and 1970s.

Analysis and Commentary

The Dutch Disease: Peter the Great's Real Legacy?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Monday, July 2, 2001

Russia is abuzz with talk of the Dutch disease. The current conventional wisdom as summarized in a June 20, 2001, Wall Street Journal article entitled "Russia's Strong Ruble Damps Hopes for Extended Growth" is that high commodities prices are causing an economic slowdown, threatening Russia's recovery.

Analysis and Commentary

The IMF, the Truth, and Russia

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, May 30, 2001

The International Monetary Fund is trying to set up a venture that would warn of impending financial crises in developing countries, which would give both itself and other international lenders time to deal with problems in their early stages. But the IMF has no incentives to enforce the truth, even for its own policy objectives.

Analysis and Commentary

The IMF, Oil, and Russian Economic Policy

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Tuesday, May 1, 2001

Given the IMF's assessment of Russia's current favorable macroeconomic environment (strong reserves, balanced budget, stable currency), the IMF states that the time is ripe to make progress on such structural and institutional reforms as creating a real banking sector and further reduce arrears. What's lacking in the IMF Outlook?

Analysis and Commentary

Can More Liberal Subsidies Spur Growth and Reduce Inflation?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Wednesday, April 25, 2001

A remarkable consensus has recently surfaced among Russian policy makers, from the President on down, and Western observers and investors. They are concerned about rising inflation and slowing growth. As a remedy, they advocate larger subsidies. Alas, simple accounting arithmetic shows that liberalization of capital outflow cannot achieve the desired objectives of higher growth and lower inflation.

Analysis and Commentary

Two Conflicting Policies in Search of Growth

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Tuesday, April 10, 2001

Two rival predictions have been made on Russian economic growth. One, by experts from the IMF, WB, and Russians themselves, is that relaxing the 75% rule will, by slowing ruble appreciation, increase growth. The other, which we have made, is that relaxing the rule will slow growth.

Analysis and Commentary

Fixing Russia’s Banks, Again: A Postscript

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Monday, March 19, 2001

In our previous article, “Fixing Russia’s Banks, AGAIN,” we pointed out the failure of previous attempts by the IMF and international accounting firms to construct accurate, comprehensive balance sheets of Russia’s commercial banks and its financial system. Moreover, we have yet to see evidence that the IMF or international accounting firms have remedied their previous shortcomings.

Analysis and Commentary

Capital Flight?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia russianeconomy.org
Thursday, March 15, 2001

The presence of large capital flight is presumed to reflect a poor investment climate in Russia. It is also said to be a contributing factor of Russia’s long-run contraction

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