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Analysis and Commentary

The IMF, Oil, and Russian Economic Policy

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Tuesday, May 1, 2001

Given the IMF's assessment of Russia's current favorable macroeconomic environment (strong reserves, balanced budget, stable currency), the IMF states that the time is ripe to make progress on such structural and institutional reforms as creating a real banking sector and further reduce arrears. What's lacking in the IMF Outlook?

Analysis and Commentary

Can More Liberal Subsidies Spur Growth and Reduce Inflation?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Wednesday, April 25, 2001

A remarkable consensus has recently surfaced among Russian policy makers, from the President on down, and Western observers and investors. They are concerned about rising inflation and slowing growth. As a remedy, they advocate larger subsidies. Alas, simple accounting arithmetic shows that liberalization of capital outflow cannot achieve the desired objectives of higher growth and lower inflation.

Analysis and Commentary

Two Conflicting Policies in Search of Growth

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Tuesday, April 10, 2001

Two rival predictions have been made on Russian economic growth. One, by experts from the IMF, WB, and Russians themselves, is that relaxing the 75% rule will, by slowing ruble appreciation, increase growth. The other, which we have made, is that relaxing the rule will slow growth.

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The Secret oF Russian Economic Growth: Testing an Old Hypothesis with New Data

by Michael S. Bernstam, Alvin Rabushka
Thursday, April 5, 2001

Inadvertently, the authors and the readers of this web site have become participants in a scientific experiment.

Analysis and Commentary

Fixing Russia’s Banks, Again: A Postscript

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Monday, March 19, 2001

In our previous article, “Fixing Russia’s Banks, AGAIN,” we pointed out the failure of previous attempts by the IMF and international accounting firms to construct accurate, comprehensive balance sheets of Russia’s commercial banks and its financial system. Moreover, we have yet to see evidence that the IMF or international accounting firms have remedied their previous shortcomings.

Analysis and Commentary

Capital Flight?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Thursday, March 15, 2001

The presence of large capital flight is presumed to reflect a poor investment climate in Russia. It is also said to be a contributing factor of Russia’s long-run contraction

Analysis and Commentary

Is Financial Liberalization Good for Russia?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Thursday, March 8, 2001

Financial liberalization in the post-central planning world of the enterprise network is a recipe for socialism in a new guise.

Analysis and Commentary

Fixing Russia’s Banks, Again

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Monday, March 5, 2001

The same people, the IMF and its supportive foreign advisers, who repeatedly missed the boat all during the 1990s, are once again going to advise Russia on how to reform its banks. Is there reason to suppose that they will be any more successful this time?

Analysis and Commentary

Who's in Charge of Government Revenue: Russia's Oil Firms or the Government?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Thursday, February 22, 2001

The Russian government has been compelled to reduce the export tax in order to improve incentives for oil producers.

Analysis and Commentary

Too Many Dollars?

by Alvin Rabushka, Michael S. Bernstamvia
Tuesday, February 20, 2001

Russia’s foreign currency and gold reserves have recently hit a new post-Soviet high, officially stated at $29.5 billion as of February 2, 2001. A rise in the domestic money supply has led some analysts to express concern that excess rouble liquidity may trigger inflation, which, in turn, could threaten both the internal and external competitiveness of Russia’s non-natural resource producers.