Over the course of the upcoming presidential election, we can currently expect a close general election, contested primaries, trials of Donald Trump, an economy that will contradict at least some expectations, and major international conflicts. This project is designed to measure the related dynamics of these and other events through a set of large scale surveys.

The survey design contains three main components:

  • Core Profile. Four waves of approximately 100,000 persons interviewed approximately every six months, starting in fall 2023, the midst of the primary season, at the beginning the fall 2024 presidential campaign, and finally in December of 2024 after the election. This will contain core “profile” variables: perceptions and ratings of candidates, voting intentions, opinions on key policy issues, economic expectations, income, and employment status.
  • Monthly panel. A 15-wave panel of approximately 12,000 persons who will be interviewed once per month. This group would be split into four groups of 3,000 persons each, who will be interviewed during a particular week. The content each week will be a combination of tracking questions (asked consistently over the 15 month period) and topical content (repeated less frequently or asked only once). All persons on the monthly panel will be selected from larger group of 100,000 so core profile variables would be available for them.
  • Cross-sections. Fresh samples for methodological testing, experimentation, etc.

The Core Profile constitutes a very large panel from which the other subsamples will be drawn. It provides a baseline that could be used for modeling the smaller samples or as a low frequency panel. The monthly panel would be most useful for modelling dynamics (opinion change, persuasion, event studies). The cross-sections will be for more specialized questions or target populations of interest to the groups (individually or jointly). The anticipated total number of interviews will be in excess of 600,000.

The data will be collected by YouGov.

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              The Center for Revitalizing American Institutions in multiple ways affirms the purpose for which Herbert Hoover created the Hoover Institution. Through scholarship, policy analysis, and dissemination of findings, RAI will help the nation meet the current existential challenges to our institutions. By giving definition to the problem and approaching it holistically, RAI is a resource for improving the current situation and encouraging an informed and active citizenry.

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