Advancing a Free Society

2010 Dynamics Lean Republican

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Over at Investor’s Business Daily’s Web site, an interesting piece by Raghavan Mayur discussing how the dynamics driving the midterm election generally tilt Republican.

Mayur uses four variables:

1) Economy. Independents give President a thumbs-down on his handling of the economy, job-creation and the federal budget. Mayur adds a sleeper: rising gasoline prices (57% of respondents in a recent IBD poll say gas prices are hurting them.

2) One-Party Rule. The same poll found three-fifths support of the notion that Democratic control of Congress and the presidency hasn’t been good for the country. The feelings toward Congress were especially brutal with only one in eight voters giving the institution an “A” or a “B”.

3) Health Care.  Opponents of health care reform outnumber supporters by only 5% but there’s an intensity gap. Two in give voters say they’re more apt to toss a member of Congress who voted for the landmark bill; only one in four felt the same about member who were anti-Obamacare.

4) Rising Conservative Tide. 57% of respondents described themselves as to the right of Obama.  On a 10-point ideology scale (1 being ”very liberal”; 10 being ”very conservative”), Obama got a rating of 3.7; the rest of the nation gave itself a 6.0.