I’d like to tell you the winner of the Iowa caucuses . . . and the New Hampshire primary . . . and the road beyond.
I’d like to tell you if it’s Barack Obama taking a second-term oath on January 20, 2013 – or, Obama watching awkwardly (and doing his best to stay out of the camera shot) as the Republican who beat him takes said oath.
But if I told you all of this now, you’d miss out on all the fun that awaits us in 2012.
Meanwhile, as your 2011 winds down, here’s a little quiz in anticipation of better days ahead . . .
1. Once the votes are counted in the Iowa caucuses, the biggest sleeper factor turns out to be:
(a) Romney’s quiet but solid ground-game
(b) The quality (or lack thereof) of Gingrich’s field operation
(c) The Paul enthusiasm gap (check those out-of-state license plates)
(d) Bachmann rallying the Religious Right
(e) Perry tapping into Cain void/Tea Partiers who want a part-time Congress/post-holiday flap in Washington
(f) The weather
2. The most likely scenario(s) in Iowa:
(a) Gingrich win
(b) Paul win
(c) Romney win
(d) Bachmann surprise finish of third or better
3. Once the votes are counted in the New Hampshire primary, the biggest sleeper factor turns out to be:
(a) Unexpectedly heavy independent vote
(b) Unexpectedly heavy Tea Party vote
(c) Huntsman’s near-residency
(d) Romney’s familiarity (ex-Massachusetts residents voting for their ex-guv)
(e) The state’s contrarian nature
(f) The weather
4. The most likely scenario(s) in New Hampshire:
(a) Romney win
(b) Gingrich win
(c) Paul win
(d) Huntsman surprise finish of third or better
5. The most likely scenario in South Carolina:
(a) Surprise Romney win, a 3-for-3 start and no stopping him now
(b) Gingrich gets back in the race
(c) Welcome back, Rick Perry
(d) Narrow multi-candidate finish, no clear verdict
6. The “pivotal” state in the GOP selection process will be:
(a) Iowa, where the nominee won and never looked back
(b) South Carolina, for breaking the Iowa-New Hampshire tie
(c) Florida, where the winner emerged with unstoppable momentum
(d) California, where two exhausted fighters – like Ali and Frazier, in the 14th round in Manila – threw their last punches
7. The Republican nomination will be “decided” (as in, the media declare it’s all over but the shouting) as soon as:
(a) Valentine’s Day
(b) St. Patrick’s Day
(c) Tax Day
(d) Memorial Day
(e) Flag Day or beyond
8. Rank the following candidates for first, second, third, fourth to drop out of the race:
(a) Bachmann
(b) Gingrich
(c) Huntsman
(d) Johnson (trick question: he jumped ship from GOP to Libertarian before Christmas – just making sure you’re awake)
(e) Paul
(f) Perry
(g) Romney
(h) Santorum
9. Assuming Mitt Romney is the nominee, his veep pick will be:
(a) Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
(b) Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell
(c) New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez
(d) Ohio Sen. Rob Portman
10. Assuming Newt Gingrich is the nominee, his veep pick will be:
(a) Jon Huntsman
(b) Florida Rep. Allen West
(c) Mitt Romney
(d) Callista Gingrich, damn the laws!
11. In the very off chance that a big-name Republican jumps into the race after Iowa (we all remember 1992’s National Draft Cuomo for President Committee), the most search for a new American Idol lands on:
(a) Sarah Palin
(b) Jeb Bush
(c) Chris Christie
(d) Julie Christie
(e) Agatha Christie
12. The odd couple most likely to go their separate ways in 2012:
(a) Ron Paul and the GOP
(b) John Boehner and the Tea Party
(c) Barack Obama and “Blue Dog” Democrats
(d) Germany and the PIIGS
(e) Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants
(f) 17-year-old Courtney Stodden and her husband, 51-year-old Doug Hutchison
13. Unable to return to their favorite Martha Vineyard haunt, the most likely First Family vacation photo-op you’ll be seeing is this summer:
(a) Rustic cabin somewhere in the Tetons (Bill Clinton’spremeditated choice leading up to his re-elect)
(b) Pup Tent One – roughing it somewhere in Yellowstone
(c) Gas Hog One – a Winnebago motoring through the Upper Midwest
(d) First Daughters Sasha and Malia splashing around a Chicago fire hydrant
14. The most memorable moment at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte:
(a) Stirring Obama speech is springboard to stunning re-election
(b) Seemingly never-ending Biden stem-winder is springboard to “Draft Hillary” movement
(c) Unruly “Occupy” protestors turn Charlotte into repeat of the ’68 convention in Chicago
(d) David Axelrod redirects “Occupy” protestors on nearby Bank of America headquarters
15. The most memorable moment at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa:
(a) Stirring acceptance speech by Romney stirs media into writing that, yes, he can deliver a stirring speech
(b) Stirring acceptance speech by Gingrich has Obama campaign updating the “Daisy Ad”
(c) Delegates gathering in Tampa’s cigar district, hold massive “smoke out” to protest Obamacare
(d) After finishing convention address, Ron Paul is beamed up to the mothership
16. Assuming President Obama is re-elected, he receives the following # of electoral votes
(a) 270-280
(b) 280-290
(c) 290-310
(d) Over 310
17. Assuming President Obama is defeated, the GOP nominee receives the following # of electoral votes:
(a) 270-280
(b) 280-290
(c) 290-310
(d) Over 310
18. Rank, in order of likelihood, the following “blue” 2008 states to go “red” in 2012 (here’s a map):
(a) Florida
(b) Ohio
(c) Nevada
(d) New Hampshire
(e) Virginia
19. Same drill, reversing the colors. Rank the following “red” 2008 states most likely to go “blue”:
(a) Arizona
(b) Georgia
(c) Missouri
(d) Montana
20. The most likely headline on the morning after Election Day 2012
(a) “Defying Odds, Obama Re-Elected”
(b) “America Chooses First Mormon President”
(c) “Ron Paul, Election Spoiler”
(d) “With Outcome Undecided, Legal Challenges, Court Decisions and Headaches Await”
