Advancing a Free Society

Analysis of House and Senate races

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Nearly everything you read about [political] polarization...is wrong, or at least incomplete or misinterpreted," remarks Hoover Senior Fellow Morris Fiorina. Fiorina and two of his Hoover colleagues, David Brady and Tammy Frisby, sat down the day after the Florida primary to talk about American politics and the 2012 election. Stepping back from the blow-by-blow coverage of the presidential campaigns, Brady, Fiorina, and Frisby discuss how underlying conditions and both continuity and change in American politics are shaping the Republican primary, the prospects for the November 2012 general election, and races for seats in the 113th Congress.

This is part 3 of 3, looking at races for the House and Senate. Part 1 covers the 2012 Republican primary, and part 2 looks at the general election for President.

In part 3 shown here, Brady, Fiorina, and Frisby consider the following questions:

  • What are the prospects for Republicans to gain a majority in the Senate?
  • How are the 2012 House races shaping up?

The scholars also consider the increasingly important role of national political forces in congressional elections and conclude with some sobering thoughts on the hard policy choices ahead.

(photo credit: Trevor Parker)