Advancing a Free Society

Dead Heat … Dead On?

Friday, September 24, 2010

Jerry and Meg: and the tie goes to . . . ?

You can’t have a tighter race than California’s gubernatorial contest between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman.

This week’s Field Poll has the two tied at 41%, with 18% undecided.

The chattering class is having a field day (pun intended) with the numbers. Among the more popular takes: Whitman’s spent $120 million, but doesn’t have a lead to show for it. Conversely, Brown does not enjoy a vast lead among women voters that California Democrats have come to expect. Women split 41%-41%. Nor does Whitman benefit from the usual GOP macho gap — male voters prefer Brown, 41%-40%.

One number that did catch my attention: Whitman has a 3% lead in Los Angeles County. That could be the difference on Election Day.

I wanted to line up these numbers against Field Polls from the same time of the year in previous election years. The problem is: no previous governor’s race seems to quite match up with Brown-Whitman.

Continue reading Bill Whalen at Politi-Cal…