Destabilizing Detente

Renewed detente with Iran will undermine Near Eastern stability. Iran is more secure than it was in 2016. Despite the damage economic sanctions have done, Iran has escalated its campaign in the Levant, continued its pressure in Yemen, and more recently signed an economic agreement with China that will insulate it from the worst of renewed American punishment if it is found in breach of a new nuclear deal. An American detente with Iran would force Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to seek alternative security options. All three powers can mount a strike on an Iranian nuclear program and Israel has demonstrated its willingness to use independent capabilities to neutralize hostile WMD threats. The UAE and Saudi Arabia likely would activate nuclear programs out of necessity. Moreover, an American detente with Iran would allow Russia to retain a moderate diplomatic relationship with Iran and court the Saudi-Emirati-Israeli partnership, promising it a free hand against Iran in exchange for a diplomatic realignment that would end U.S. influence in this strategic fulcrum between Europe, Asia, and Africa. Russia could then balance between the two parties, oscillating between them as it has done with Turkey since 2014. In every scenario, an American-Iranian detente destabilizes the region.