This essay responded to the question: "In terms of financial clout and technological expertise, which major powers, if any, threaten to match U.S. military power?"
For the foreseeable future, no single power, nor even axis or alliance of rival powers, can hope to match the range of financial power or technological expertise—either expertise measured in narrowly military terms or more broadly—of the United States. The world still waits with baited breath for the Federal Reserve to set what are, in effect, global interest rates. The dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. China’s new Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank may sucker others outside Beijing into providing additional subsidies to Chinese construction firms, but perhaps not; so far, no one else has put up much money.
Nor is China likely to threaten Silicon Valley anytime soon. While there is a lively debate over what the rising number of Chinese patent filings mean and how to score domestic versus international filings (especially “triadic” filings that are registered in the United States, Europe, and Japan), it remains the case that, in regard to military technologies, China and Russia both are better at imitation and espionage than innovation.
However, when one looks more closely at specific situations where state-run economies might muster resources than more open economies wouldn’t squander them, or at regional balances of military power, the measure of American advantage is narrower. While the Fed has become increasingly politicized—can anyone say “asset bubble?”—the Chinese don’t beat around the bush: like the autocrats they are, they see no problem with dictating stock prices. That’s not the way to maximize long-term returns on investment, but it is kind of impressive nonetheless. And the whole “anti-access/area-denial” mania that’s given the U.S. Navy and Air Force such vapors in recent years is a real-enough concern.
The continuing fact of American global interests and reach is an invitation to others to meddle without presuming to match U.S. finances or forces. The temptation increases, too, as the current administration both pushes the economy toward economic stagnation born of metastasizing entitlements and military divestments. Power is always a relative thing; America’s retreats encourage others’ hopes.
