We are half a year into the new Biden administration, but the complexity and frustration surrounding U.S. policy towards Iran that have vexed earlier administrations are already readily apparent.
Like the previous Trump administration, the Biden administration’s goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while facilitating peace and stability throughout the Middle East. During the 2020 presidential campaign, then-candidate Joe Biden was critical of President Donald Trump’s perceived bellicose stance towards Iran, objecting to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was concluded by the Obama administration with Biden’s full support. Biden pledged to reenter the JCPOA with the intent of improving and extending it to better achieve the aforementioned goals. It’s not going well, and that’s not surprising.
The realities and dynamics surrounding the Biden administration’s foundering efforts stem from Iran’s perception that Biden has boxed himself in, limiting U.S. leverage during ongoing negotiations. Simply put, the Iranian leadership believes Biden needs a new agreement more than they do, and they do not intend to budge. Iran’s ability to withstand years of onerous sanctions by working around them, trading with and selling oil to nations willing to ignore U.S. exhortations, coupled with marked success Iran has had diplomatically dividing NATO members in general—and JCPOA signatories in particular—on negotiating positions has emboldened them to press the Biden administration for substantial sanctions relief with little concession. After all, the Obama administration didn’t exactly achieve a strong agreement in the first place. This explains the recent lack of progress at Vienna. This is all happening against the backdrop of inexplicable damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and a mix of Israeli denials and ambiguous statements regarding their involvement in said developments. The U.S. and the world should be concerned.
Fortunately, there is still time to get this right. We should start by establishing a framework for a future that benefits the U.S., Iran, the broader Middle East and the world. I nominate three overarching goals:
- An Iranian pledge to permanently renounce nuclear weapons and the implementation of an international oversight regime that verifies compliance with that pledge. Inspectors, which should include Americans, must be able to get anywhere, at any time, to ensure compliance.
- A pledge by all JCPOA parties to pursue peace and stability in the Middle East and an international oversight regime that verifies that no exportation of state-sponsored violence has occurred.
- Having achieved the first two goals, the implementation of sanctions relief and wide-ranging economic and social incentives for Iran to rejoin the community of nations and flourish.
The Trump administration chose to apply maximum pressure to force Iran to accept its unilateral goals and the Biden administration has tried at Vienna to reestablish the JCPOA. Neither succeeded.
We should pursue a third way: reestablish a policy of maximum pressure to force Iran to the table and then work with France as a mediator to persuade Iran that accepting the three aforementioned goals is in everyone’s best interests, including Iran. French President Emmanuel Macron has credibility with both the U.S. and Iran and appears committed to achieving these three goals. Some sanctions relief could be tied to verified compliance with initial specific stipulations in the new agreement to build trust and demonstrate the positive effects of a peaceful negotiated settlement, but most of the sanctions would not be removed until both the first two major goals are verified as complete. Securing this kind of agreement will not only help stabilize the Middle East, it will also enable the United States to effectively pivot and focus on the civilizational challenge we face from China.
