- History
- World
- Revitalizing History
The Black Sea must be strategically reprioritized after the war in Ukraine. Although the Montreux Convention has effectively limited escalation in that maritime theater, a potential ceasefire will expose the region’s enduring risks of volatility. Russian ambitions in the Black Sea will not fade after the war. Given the delicate diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow and the Black Sea’s central role in global trade and food security, safeguarding the region will require Western prioritization.
Key Takeaways
- Russia will not relinquish ambitions in the Black Sea after a ceasefire in Ukraine. Dominance in the Black Sea is nonnegotiable for Moscow; it is ingrained in Russia’s national identity and reflected in the current Maritime Doctrine. A ceasefire will not temper these expansionist ambitions, and the reopening of the Turkish Straits will create new opportunities for renewed Russian pressure.
- The Montreux Convention remains central to stability in the Black Sea—and should not be revised. Forged through great-power rivalry in 1936, the Montreux regime has provided an unusually durable framework for safeguarding the Black Sea, including limiting naval escalation in the war in Ukraine. Any attempt at revising the Convention would risk destabilizing the Black Sea’s status quo.
- Turkey’s transactional relationship with Russia is decisive but fragile. Despite energy and grain trade ties, the inherently fragile understanding between Ankara and Moscow may fracture post war due to historical rivalry and Turkey’s delicate position as a NATO ally. Converging wartime interests may subside and undermine the pragmatic rapport.
- NATO security commitments are in play for the Black Sea despite current Western neglect. The security of the Turkish Straits and the Black Sea are inseparable from NATO’s collective defense commitments. Current underprioritization by Washington and Brussels risks exposing NATO’s southeastern flank to Russian grey-zone activities.
- The Black Sea’s central role in global trade and grain exports amplify the geopolitical stakes. As a chokepoint on the Middle Corridor trade route and a center of global wheat and fertilizer exports, the Black Sea has become increasingly consequential for global trade and food security. Weaponization of Russia’s deepening leverage over the grain market will have far-reaching geopolitical ramifications.
Reprioritizing the Black Sea After the War in Ukraine [HHL Policy Brief 2601] by Hoover Institution
Cite this essay:
Ziyi Wang, “Reprioritizing the Black Sea after the War in Ukraine,” Hoover Institution, Hoover History Lab Policy Brief no. 2601, February 2026.
