Over at NationalJournal.com, former Bush 43 and Schwarzenegger advisor Matthew Dowd describes the three factors that, in his estimation, could do in Barack Obama in 2012: a poor economy, continued overseas crises, and a charismatic Republican challenger.
There’s a fourth variable – the ever-changing nature of the presidency (it changed under Hoover in 1932, Carter in 1980, and Bush 41 in 1992) – but that’s another discussion for another day.
But rather than waste your time speculating on the circumstances involved in unseating an incumbent president – good luck predicting this nation’s health and other nations’ mischief 19 months from now – I’d like you to engage in something far more empirical: presidential mathematics.
