This excerpt from the latest issue of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR) focuses on space, one of ten key technologies studied in this continuing educational initiative. SETR, a project of the Hoover Institution and the Stanford School of Engineering, harnesses the expertise of Stanford University’s leading science and engineering faculty to create an easy-to-use reference tool for policy makers. Download the full report here and subscribe here for news and updates.
Space technology has proven its value to the national interest. Some of the most important applications are the following:
Navigation: This includes positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services around the world and in space. GPS and similar services operated by other nations help people know where they are and how fast and in which direction they are going, whether on land, on the ocean surface, in the air, or in space.
Communications: Satellites provide vital communications in remote areas and for mobile users, complementing the terrestrial networks that carry most long-haul communications.
Remote sensing: Remote sensing satellites, with their unique vantage point and sophisticated sensors, rapidly gather extensive data about areas and objects of interest.
Scientific research: Space-based astronomy and exploration provide in-depth insights into the origins of planets, stars, galaxies, and life on Earth.
Space transportation: The space transportation industry has seen launch costs drop by more than an order of magnitude over a couple of decades to $1,500 per kilogram in 2021.
National security: Spacecraft constantly scan Earth for missile launches (both ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles) aimed at the United States or its allies, nuclear weapons explosions anywhere in the world, radio traffic and radar signals from other countries, and the movements of allies and enemies in military contexts.
The space sector is shifting from government-owned legacy systems and their long development timelines and mission lifetimes to a “NewSpace” economy driven by private companies. This privatization makes space technologies more accessible and less expensive. Governments are also embracing small spacecraft and on-demand launches to expand space capabilities cost-effectively.
However, the private sector’s rapidly increasing role in space also presents new challenges. These include dealing with risks inherent in dual-use space technologies; managing crises in a realm where lines separating individual private actors, the space sector as a whole, and government actors are increasingly blurred; differentiating between accidents and malevolent actions; and relying on companies whose interests may not be fully aligned with those of the US government.
Glimpses of the future
For certain types of manufacturing, such as specialized pharmaceuticals, optics, and semiconductors, space offers two major advantages over terrestrial manufacturing. Because the vacuum of space is very clean, minimizing contamination is much easier. Further, the microgravity environment of space means that phenomena resulting from the effects of gravity—such as sedimentation, buoyancy, thermal convection, and hydrostatic pressure—can be minimized. This enables, for example, the fabrication of more perfect crystals and more perfect shapes. Production processes for biological materials, medicines, metallizations, polymers, semiconductors, and electronics may benefit.
The moon and asteroids may well have vast storehouses of useful minerals that are hard to find or extract on Earth, such as rare-earth elements that are used in batteries and catalytic converters as well as in guidance systems and other defense applications. Helium-3 found on the moon may be an important source of fuel for nuclear fusion reactors. Future space-mining operations may bring these resources back to Earth to meet growing demand in a sustainable way. Mining of regolith (loose rock that sits atop bedrock) and ice on the moon is also critical for enabling a permanent human presence there and supporting subsequent expansion into the solar system.
Above Earth’s atmosphere, in certain orbits, the sun shines for twenty-four hours a day and even more brightly than it does on Earth’s surface. To meet clean energy needs, this permanent sunlight could eventually be harnessed for space-based power generation.
The emergence of low-cost, high-quality imagery and other information from space-based assets—increasingly launched and operated by private companies—will be an important driver of open-source intelligence that data analysts can buy.
As spacecraft fly ever farther from the Sun, they will need novel forms of power, such as sources driven by nuclear reactions, for the propulsive energy needed to make their missions possible. Better propulsion systems that can be quickly deployed will also be needed to intercept interstellar objects so that samples can be collected from them.
Governance lags
International and national space governance has not developed at the same rapid pace as space technology. Existing legal frameworks—many of which were products of the Cold War—do not address wide swaths of current activities and are often contested in scope and interpretation. Attempts at improvement have often stagnated because of differing geopolitical aims. Even within the United States, space assets are not designated as critical infrastructure by the government despite their importance, and growth in space activity far outpaces the capabilities of current licensing processes run by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).
Nonetheless, a number of developments in the past couple of years are notable. NASA has released its strategy, including actionable objectives, for sustainability in space activities in Earth orbit. It also promised to release similar strategies in the future for activities on Earth; the orbital area near and around the moon known as cislunar space; and deep space, including other celestial bodies. In addition, the FCC issued its first-ever fine for a satellite not properly disposed of from geostationary orbit. These short-term policy advances must be unified with a longer-term vision encompassing the next fifty to one hundred years to effectively address national security needs, support the space industry’s continued development, and realize the responsible use of space as a global commons.
The number of objects in space has grown rapidly. Today, there are nearly 30,000 tracked space objects larger than 10 centimeters, of which about 10,000 are working satellites. There are also an estimated 1.1 million fragments between 1 and 10 centimeters in size. With so many objects in space, the risks of collision between them are growing. Each collision has the capacity to create even more debris, leading to a catastrophic chain reaction known as the Kessler syndrome, which would effectively block access to space. In addition, increasing volumes of space traffic may lead to communications interference, and coordination of space activities such as orbit planning will be increasingly difficult to manage. To tackle this issue, new domestic safety legislation and international cooperation will be needed.
Many issues arise with respect to space and geopolitics. A key example is the Outer Space Treaty (OST). Recent evidence suggests the treaty’s norms are eroding—in 2024, Russia vetoed a UN resolution prohibiting the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, and senior US officials revealed that they believe Russia is developing a satellite to carry nuclear weapons into low earth orbit, where a detonation could destroy all satellite activity there for up to a year.
In addition, there is no treaty, OST or otherwise, that limits other military uses of space, including the placement of conventional weapons in orbit. And because space-based capabilities are integral to supporting modern warfighters, they may become targets of foreign counterspace threats. To date, four nations—China, Russia, India, and the United States—have successfully tested kinetic antisatellite weapons capable of physically destroying satellites in space. More broadly, countries are developing a range of capabilities, from the ground and in space, to degrade, deny, and even destroy satellites of other nations. Cyberattacks are an important element of the non-kinetic threat spectrum against space missions, which can lead to data corruption, jamming, and hijacking of space intelligence.
Nations today are engaged in a new “race to the moon,” though with different motivations than in the 1960s. While prestige remains a factor, the current race focuses on establishing a lunar presence for strategic and economic advantages. Russia and China are among the parties seeking to establish a permanent moon presence. The first nation to successfully establish a lunar presence may well gain a first-mover advantage that enables it to be in a stronger position to set the terms for others to come. Although the OST prohibits claiming lunar sovereignty, there are concerns that nations might disregard this for national interests. The possibility of a nation taking military action to prevent others from establishing their own lunar presence highlights the potential for conflict in this new space race.
