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Long-Term Issues For Central Banks

by Jaime Caruana, Kevin Warshvia Bank for International Settlements
Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The global political, economic and financial landscape is constantly evolving. Some of the changes may prove short-lived. But others may be slow-moving and persistent, and only detectable over time as evidence accumulates. Although central banks’ day-to-day operations and policymaking tend to focus on near- or medium-term developments, longer-term trends and structural changes will at some point come into the picture – not least because of their impact on the economic relationships that are central to policy formulation and analysis.

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Keeping the Lights on at America's Nuclear Power Plants

by Jeremy Carl, David Fedorvia Hoover Institution Press
Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Jeremy Carl and David Fedor discuss American nuclear power plant closures in light of major economic and policy challenges. They show how cheap natural gas, electricity market flaws, and a failure to capture the public imagination threaten America’s near- and long-term nuclear viability.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Appropriate Norms Of State Behavior In Cyberspace: Governance In China And Opportunities For US Businesses

by Mei Gechlikvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, July 27, 2017

Finding cybernorms that are acceptable to the United States and China, which have different ideologies and practices as well as enormous interests at stake, is challenging. This article identifies these developments in China - the new Guiding Cases System as well as foreign and domestic developments regarding facilitating everyone’s access to cyberspace - and discusses how they, together with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s growing significance in the international arena, call for more strategic thinking among US policymakers so that the United States can seize the new opportunities to engage meaningfully with China in establishing international norms for cyberspace.

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Encryption Substitutes

by Andrew Keane Woodsvia Aegis Paper Series
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

This paper argues that the “going dark” debate ought to be considered in context of the larger debate over government access to data. Encryption is not the only game in town: just as law enforcement can pursue a number of different alternatives to mandating encryption backdoors, so too can privacy advocates take steps beyond encrypting their data to ensure their privacy.  Acknowledging these substitutes—both for law enforcement and for privacy seekers—generates a number of insights. For example, comprehensive reform may make more sense than serial reforms, since it would allow for issue linkage and deal-making.

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The US Arms Control And Disarmament Agency In 1961–63

by James Goodbyvia Hoover Institution Press
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Public policy issues involving a complex mix of problems, exemplified today by climate change and the threat of nuclear war, require governance by institutions whose mandates and cultures embrace technological expertise as well as diplomatic and military skills. This paper is a case study of how such an institution operated during the Kennedy Administration to deal with the growing threat of radioactive debris in the environment and the threat of nuclear proliferation, and also put US-Soviet relations on a new trajectory. The 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty might not have been concluded during the Kennedy Administration had the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency not been established in 1961.

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China and the US Strategic Construction of Cybernorms: The Process Is the Product

by Duncan B. Hollisvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, July 6, 2017

This paper explores the role norms play in advancing U.S. interests in changing Chinese behavior in cyberspace.  It compares and contrasts U.S. efforts to achieve two norms:  (1) the U.N. Group of Governmental Experts’ consensus that international law applies in cyberspace; and (2) the U.S.-China understanding that neither State would pursue cyber-espionage for commercial advantages.  In contrast to prior studies that focus only on the behavior a norm requires, this paper employs a broader, process-based analysis.  That analysis offers a new framework for strategizing about the potential risks and rewards of pursuing different normative processes, whether in U.S. efforts to impact China’s behavior in cyberspace or vice-versa. 

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The 2016 Presidential Election—Identities, Class, And Culture

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Hoover Institution Press
Thursday, June 22, 2017

In the aggregate the 2016 election returns were similar to those in 2012, but the consequences of the voting were dramatically different. This contrast highlights the fact that in a majoritarian system like that in the United States minor changes in the vote can produce major changes in government control and the public policies that result. Looking ahead, perhaps the most significant feature of the 2016 voting was the reappearance of anti-establishment “populist” sentiments that are roiling the politics of other advanced democracies.

EssaysBlank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

Ayatollah Machiavelli

by Karim Sadjadpourvia Hoover Institution Press
Tuesday, June 20, 2017

The Islamic Republic of Iran and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have arguably become the most powerful country, and leader, in the Middle East. A Machiavellian combination of ruthlessness, radicalism, and realism—underpinned by a 2500-year history of subtle statecraft—has helped Tehran fill political vacuums created by the Iraq war and Arab uprisings. Though American and Iran share numerous common interests—and adversaries—as long as Iran continues to define itself as a revolution rather than a nation-state cooperation will be minimal, containment will be necessary, and confrontation may be unavoidable

EssaysBlank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

The Follies Of Democracy Promotion

by Samuel Tadrosvia Hoover Institution Press
Tuesday, June 6, 2017

President Obama’s election was warmly greeted in Egypt by both the country’s leader and population. In Cairo, Obama promised a new beginning, not only in America’s relationship with Egypt, but the whole Muslim world. By the time he left office, the American Egyptian relationship was in shambles. In this essay, Samuel Tadros examines the illusions that shaped Obama’s adventure in Egypt in pursuit of an imaginary transition to democracy, offering a cautionary tale for the Trump administration. If the US Egyptian alliance is to be strengthened and Egypt is to survive the regional upheaval, President Trump should forgo the illusions Washington holds about the country and base his strategy toward Egypt not on Egypt as it should be, but on Egypt as it is.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Chinese Cyber Diplomacy In A New Era Of Uncertainty

by Adam Segalvia Aegis Paper Series
Friday, June 2, 2017

After initially taking a relatively defensive, reactive position on the global governance of cyberspace, China under President Xi Jinping has adopted a more activist cyber diplomacy. This foreign policy has three primary goals: limit the threat that the internet and the flow of information may pose to domestic stability and regime legitimacy; shape cyberspace to extend Beijing’s political, military, and economic influence; and counter US advantages in cyberspace and increase China’s room of maneuver. Measured against its objectives, China’s diplomacy would appear relatively successful. The greatest uncertainty for Beijing moving forward is the state of US-China relations.

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