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Essays

African Governance: Challenges and Their Implications

by Chester A. Crockervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

In Africa, as in every region, it is the quality and characteristics of governance that shape the level of peace and stability and the prospects for economic development. There is no more critical variable than governance, for it is governance that determines whether there are durable links between the state and the society it purports to govern. The nature of governance is central because it determines whether the exercise of authority is viewed as legitimate. Legitimate authority, in turn, is based on accepted laws and norms rather than the arbitrary, unconstrained power of the rulers. 

Essays

Africa Trade and Technology

by Anthony Carroll, Eric Obscherningvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, January 14, 2019

It is perceived that economic nationalism has slowed the meteoric rise of global trade. Since the Uruguay Round created the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, trade of goods and services has become a dominant feature in global economic growth. As a result, hundreds of millions of people in developing countries have graduated from subsistence living to middle-class status. The accession of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 accelerated both the volume and character of global trade. By 2008, Global Value Chains (GVCs) have come to explain up to 70% of global trade volumes. GVCs optimize comparative advantage across borders and have enabled innovation in trade logistics and services technologies, in addition to a general WTO commitment by member states to facilitate trade.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

The Important, Justifiable, And Constrained Role Of Nationality In Foreign Intelligence Surveillance

by Peter Swire, Jesse Woo, Deven R. Desaivia Aegis Paper Series
Tuesday, January 8, 2019

This article addresses whether governments ever have a justified basis for treating targets of surveillance differently, in any way, based on nationality. Topics include (1) three ways nationality can matter to surveillance; (2) reasons for stricter rules for law enforcement and domestic collection; (3) reasons for different rules based on the location of collection; (4) the universalist critique of surveillance laws based on nationality; and (5) reasons that can justify stricter surveillance rules based on nationality. Stricter protections are warranted because surveillance of nationals and others with a close connection to the domestic policy poses a special threat to the political opposition and free press of a country, both of which play crucial roles in limiting abuses of state power.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

What Is At Stake In Yemen

by Fahad Nazervia Analysis
Thursday, December 20, 2018

Contrary to the prevailing perception that the conflict in Yemen has been forgotten by the international community, the war has garnered a fair amount of attention. However, what is being overlooked is what is at stake in Yemen, how the conflict started, and why it has continued. Instead of focusing exclusively on the Saudi-led coalition’s involvement in the conflict, those seeking to understand the war and the ensuing humanitarian crisis should examine Yemen’s turbulent history, fragile state, the Houthi rebels’ record of militancy, and Iran’s designs to create yet another proxy force in an Arab country. 

Essays

Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges for the Governance of a Fragile Continent

by Ernesto Silva via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Facebook Live. That was the platform chosen by Jair Bolsonaro to issue his first statements after learning of his triumph in the presidential elections in Brazil in October 2018.1 It was not a speech at the headquarters of his party or in a public place. It was not the television channels or the radio stations that intermediated in the communication with the citizens. More than 300,000 people saw their statements live, and within the hour there were more than two million people who had seen his eight-minutes long message, approximately, quickly registering nearly 350,000 comments and reactions. 

Essays

Emerging Demographic Challenges and Persistent Trends in Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America

by Víctor M. García Guerrero, Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo, Claudia Masferrervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Population dynamics, often conceived only by looking at its size or volume, has defined opportunities and challenges throughout history. However, the evolution and changes of the demographic components of a population (fertility, mortality, and migration) are key for understanding the nature of these challenges and opportunities. In this document we analyze past and future demographic dynamics of the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) and Mexico, the Latin American country of North America. 

Essays

Digital Transformation in Central America: Marginalization or Empowerment?

by Richard Aitkenhead, Benjamin Sywulkavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

As Digital Transformation reaches Central America, a strategic question arises: will it result in more marginalization, or in more empowerment? Writing from a practitioner’s perspective building on decades of lessons learned, the authors propose design principles for the transition. The region is systemically unprepared for the global forces that are hitting it, and the ability of the average citizen to generate income will increasingly decrease.

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China's Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance

via Analysis
Thursday, November 29, 2018

This report, written and endorsed by a group of this country’s leading China specialists and students of one-party systems is the result of more than a year of research and represents an attempt to document the extent of China’s expanding influence operations inside the United States. While there have been many excellent reports documenting specific examples of Chinese influence seeking, this effort attempts to come to grips with the issue as a whole and features an overview of the Chinese party-state United Front apparatus responsible for guiding overseas influence activities.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

Flat Light

by Andrew Burt, Daniel E. Geer, Jr.via Aegis Paper Series
Tuesday, November 20, 2018

The world of information security has always had reference points – or ground truths – that, like physical features in a landscape, served as navigational features for practitioners and policymakers alike. As time has passed and the state of information security has become more uncertain, these features have eroded. As reference points, they are now either unhelpful (at best) or disinformative (at worst). A deep state of disorientation is now upon us - in privacy, in security, and beyond. This paper explains how we arrived at this point, and suggests what to do next.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

2018 And Beyond

by John P. Carlin, David A. Newmanvia Aegis Paper Series
Monday, November 12, 2018

Despite the assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 election and will continue this type of activity in the future, there has been little national action. This paper contends that the inaction partially stems from political and bureaucratic obstacles to preparing a US response to any future interference—including obstacles to overcoming public apathy, the concern that any measures taken might favor one political party, and federalism questions that arise whenever the federal government considers proposals affecting state election conduct. 

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