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NATO, Brexit, And America’s Security

by Bruce Thorntonvia Analysis
Monday, October 31, 2016

The Brexit, along with Donald Trump’s criticisms of NATO, have raised questions about what a dissolution of these two multinational institutions might mean for the security and interests of the U.S. Despite justified criticisms of European NATO members’ failure to meet their financial obligations, NATO is unlikely to unravel. The British departure from the EU is more portentous. Longstanding problems with the EU reflect structural deficiencies that may not be amenable to further policy adjustments. A breakdown of the EU, however, could free up European nations to craft defense pacts and increase defense spending that would benefit America’s security.

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EU And NATO: Obsolete Or Obstinate?

by Josef Joffevia Analysis
Monday, October 31, 2016

Could the European Union fall apart? Would that end NATO, too? Or will the EU’s troubles lead to a more robust defense? “No” to all of the above. To begin, Brexit will not unleash mass defection because a) the 27 remaining nations are far more deeply integrated, and b) they regard the benefit-cost ratio far more favorably than does Britain. At heart an American alliance, NATO will endure, as it has for 70 years, as long as the U.S. guarantee holds. Precisely for that reason, the Europeans will not move toward an autonomous defense. Yet if the U.S. withdraws its umbrella, it is just as likely that Europe would seek safety in accommodating Russia.

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Independents: The Marginal Members Of An Electoral Coalition

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Essays on Contemporary American Politics
Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Currently, the party balance in the United States is nearly even, roughly one-third Democratic, one-third Republican, and one-third independent, taking turnout into account.

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The International Legal Dynamics Of Encryption

by Ashley Deeksvia Aegis Paper Series
Tuesday, October 11, 2016

To date there has been little international coordinated action to address encryption, though interest is growing. This paper looks at encryption through five different international lenses: human rights, law enforcement, intelligence, economics, and export controls. 

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Decryption Mandates And Global Internet Freedom

by Adam I. Kleinvia Aegis Paper Series
Monday, September 26, 2016

The potential international effects of a domestic decryption mandate have been a significant factor in the debate over U.S. encryption policy.  Some fear that a U.S. decryption mandate would empower authoritarian regimes and would clash with the United States’ international Internet-freedom agenda.

US Political Parties
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The Political Parties Have Sorted

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Essays on Contemporary American Politics
Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Although the American public at large has not polarized, it is better sorted than a generation ago. Whereas the parties were once “big tents,” they are now ideologically more homogeneous: liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats have largely disappeared.

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Attribution of Malicious Cyber Incidents: From Soup to Nuts

by Herbert Linvia Aegis Paper Series
Monday, September 19, 2016

Attribution of malicious cyber activities is a deep issue about which confusion and disquiet can be found in abundance. Attribution has many aspects—technical, political, legal, policy, and so on. This paper distinguishes between attribution of malicious cyber activity to a machine, to a specific human being pressing the keys that initiate that activity, and to a party that is deemed ultimately responsible for that activity.

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An Era Of Tenuous Majorities: Historical Context

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Essays on Contemporary American Politics
Wednesday, September 7, 2016

The United States is currently experiencing an almost unprecedented period of electoral instability. This essay describes this important feature of contemporary politics and sets the stage for later essays that describe and attempt to explain current developments and trace their consequences for American government.

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Security Strategies: Experiences Of The Mexican States Of Chihuahua And Nuevo León

via Hoover Institution
Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Mexico has struggled to consolidate a solid rule of law. The northern Mexican states of Chihuahua and Nuevo León are notable, however, for having successfully reduced the levels of violence that spiked there in 2010–11.

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Go Big, Go Global: Subject the NSA ’s Overseas Programs to Judicial Review

by Timothy Edgarvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, June 30, 2016

Congress should use the debate over section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to think big.  Section 702 brings some NSA programs directed at foreign targets under judicial review, showing such review is feasible even for complex programs of transnational surveillance.

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