With the rise of China and the civilizational challenge it presents for the rest of the world, we will soon see more of what realist theorists and historians describe as “balancing” actions by the international community to contain this potential existential threat. As part of that phenomenon, I expect U.S.-Russian relations to improve as these two countries increasingly work together to check a rising China.
Given the long record of antagonism between our two nations since the Cold War, which briefly abated after the fall of the Berlin Wall only to worsen again with the ascent of Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin, some may doubt this possibility. However, at moments like these it’s instructive to look at history and remember that the U.S. found a way to work closely with the notorious butcher Soviet premier Joseph Stalin in order to defeat an even greater threat, German führer Adolf Hitler and the Axis powers. History has shown us that existential threats such as these have a tendency to sublimate the differences between even antithetical ideologies, and when everything is on the line, cause an arguably otherwise idealistic America to look the other way when it comes to corrupt and abusive dictators. In pivotal moments like these, it all comes down to power as it always does, and humans will do what it takes to survive. In the coming years as China’s power grows and her outsized and dangerous ambitions become clearer, nations will lean-in and do what is required to balance and check that threat.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made his ambitions patently clear to both the people of China and the world. Xi, who ascended to General Secretary of the Communist Party in 2012 and President of China in 2013, is now leader for life (China abolished term limits in 2018, effectively making Xi’s power akin to Chinese Emperors of old). Xi has abandoned former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of “hiding your strength and biding your time” to overtly pursuing global power with his “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI).
The connection between these international trade and development activities, with the corresponding projection of military power is readily apparent in the way Xi has quickly translated late loan repayments for Chinese financed and built roads, ports, and bridges in places like Sri Lanka, Djibouti, and Pakistan into formidable geo-political influence, and in some cases, even overt military presence. All of these moves are made easier because of the economic vehicles China uses to implement BRI: state-owned enterprises like COSCO Shipping Ports and China Merchants Port Holdings doing the bidding of the Chinese government. All of these BRI activities are coming with stepped-up confrontational actions (both political and military) by China in the South China Sea.
While there is no question that China is creating some international “antibodies” with these heavy-handed moves (not to mention some domestic discontent with these misplaced priorities), they are not without champions. After all, Chinese investments in the Greek port of Piraeus have made that entity highly successful and profitable for all stakeholders. Even Israel is getting in on the action with China now building new ports in Haifa and Ashdod.
Although I disagree with some scholars who claim we are likely, if not destined, to go to war with China, I have long believed that we must confront and check Chinese aggression and insist on fair, transparent, and enforceable comprehensive agreements between our nations. Given the sheer size and scale of the Chinese threat, it’s not likely we will achieve that without working together with Russia.
While today Russia continues to cause major problems for the United States (including waging cyberattacks against us, meddling in our elections, putting bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, and poisoning its own domestic political opponents, just to name a few), given the geo-political need to check China, we should immediately take a series of steps to get the U.S.-Russian relationship back on track.
First, we must strengthen deterrence and send a clear message to Putin we will not tolerate his cyberattacks, meddling in our internal politics nor will we accept his involvement in killing our soldiers. Putin respects power and will respond to our strength. Second, we must strengthen collective defense and enhance NATO unity. We are making progress on that, and recent steps to reinforce the Baltics with Allied ground troops and to provide arms to non-NATO Ukraine are also movement in the right direction and we should not reverse them. These actions go beyond shoring up capability; they also display determined will, essential to credible deterrence. Third, we must take steps to strengthen our economy, unify our country, and stabilize our debt crisis. History is littered with great powers who crumbled under the weight of massive debt. We are not immune from such fate. Our energy revolution provides enormous opportunity here. We are in a strong position to export natural gas and oil to help Europe get off its dependency of Russian energy. This will strengthen our economy and help fill the treasury coffers with needed revenues to help us to get back to a balanced budget.
Taking these actions will ensure we approach Russia from a position of strength and convince Russian leadership (now and after Putin) to work with us on a number of strategic priorities including defeating Islamic extremism, stabilizing the Middle East, and yes, balancing a rising China.
By working together to achieve these priorities, we will build the trust necessary for arguably our boldest initiative—bringing Russia into friendship with the West, and possibly new legal arrangements—commercial, diplomatic, and security agreements. By following this broad outline and insisting on verifiable actions, Russia will see the wisdom in changing course and working with the U.S. to achieve our mutual interests.
