The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT.

The book is available for purchase here.

ABOUT THE TALK

Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

Upcoming Events

Thursday, May 23, 2024
Taiwan
Taiwan After The 2024 Elections Annual Conference
On behalf of its Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and The Global Policy and Strategy Initiative of the Hoover Institution invite you to … Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Young woman standing with view of buildings in city downtown
Feminism in China After 2013: Social Movements, Media, and the State
The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power and Stanford's Clayman Institute for Gender Research invite you to Feminism in China After 2013: … Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Thursday, May 30, 2024 4:00 PM PT
The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan
The Boiling Moat
The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region invites you to The Boiling Moat on Thursday, May 30, 2024 from… Hoover Institution, Stanford University
overlay image