This Friday, Russell Berman applies his expertise in Middle East politics and history to an analysis of what recent developments in the region, ushered in by Israel and the United States, could mean for its future; Rishi Sunak points out that countries other than the US and China can reap significant benefits from the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) systems; and Victor Davis Hanson takes a look at national policy and politics in the wake of Trump’s reelection, finding that what was once “unthinkable has become the banal.”
US Foreign Policy
In an essay for Defining Ideas, Senior Fellow Russell A. Berman argues that the second Trump administration has already “initiated significant shifts in Middle East policy” that have “profoundly” changed dynamics within the region. Berman suggests that the US degradation of Iranian “axis of resistance” proxies across the Middle East, in concert with Israel, has been effective but remains incomplete. As he writes, “Terrorist militias still pose credible threats to the individual sovereign states and therefore to the regional order.” Nevertheless, Berman expresses guarded optimism that the Palestinian populations in Gaza and the West Bank will take steps toward meaningful self-rule, which could start at the municipal level. As he concludes, “A combination of effective local governance under a transitional authority and economic investment, especially from the Gulf, will eventually be the way forward, but this will take time.” Read more here.
Technology Policy and Innovation
The competition between America and China to develop artificial general intelligence—"AI that surpasses humans at all cognitive tasks”—is of fundamental geopolitical importance, but that doesn’t mean other countries are “mere spectators,” argues Distinguished Visiting Fellow Rishi Sunak at The Economist. Separate from the competition at the frontiers of the field is a race to deploy AI technologies “across the whole of the nation,” and Sunak says the “first countries to achieve everyday AI will reap huge benefits.” The former British prime minister urges leaders to support the rollout of “infrastructure that enables general-purpose technologies to generate productivity gains across the economy.” Sunak makes the case that AI can be a significant growth driver if populations are trained properly in its use and if “the cyber, biological, and nuclear risks of frontier AI models” are policed properly. The challenge for regulators, Sunak explains, is “to regulate [AI] in a way that encourages adoption.” Read more here. [Subscription required]
Politics, Institutions, and Public Opinion
“In less than six months, the entire world has been turned upside down,” argues Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson in a new essay examining shifts in federal policy under the Trump administration. Noting significant reversals to prior trends in illegal border crossings, military recruitment, and NATO member defense spending commitments, Hanson maintains that “a new president” has been instrumental in driving improved policy outcomes. In recent years, he suggests, “people knew establishment narratives were absurd, and our supposed experts were even more ridiculous,” fueling a desire for greater common sense in government and ultimately the reelection of Donald Trump. In the piece, Hanson also examines shifts in economic policy; how recession and severe trade war concerns have not yet come to pass; and the significance of reversals in institutional “diversity, equity, and inclusion” policies for the military and academia. Read more here.
International Affairs
Writing at Foreign Policy, Senior Fellow Sumit Ganguly examines the “crisis” in the Indian Air Force (IAF) exposed by that nation’s recent limited conflict with Pakistan. He argues that issues with aircraft and weapons procurement as well as strategic and political blunders in eschewing deeper defense industrial ties with the United States have left the IAF operating dangerously out of date airframes for far longer than intended. Ganguly writes, “Faced with two implacable adversaries—Pakistan as well as China—and grappling with a host of domestic limitations, the IAF faces demands that will weaken its military edge in the foreseeable future.” This situation will remain an “irresolvable conundrum,” in Ganguly’s view, absent significant reforms in India to how military aircraft and weapons systems are procured and produced. Read more here. [Subscription required]
Energy and the Environment
At the New York Post opinion page, Visiting Fellow Bjorn Lomborg criticizes European states for prioritizing carbon dioxide emissions cuts over the reliability of the continent’s energy grid. He notes that European budgets for “solar panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and the like” are larger than the continent’s total spending on defense. Worse still, average electricity bills in the European Union last year were “two times higher than in the US.” After reviewing evidence suggesting the US and Europe are no longer primary contributors to global CO2 emissions, Lomborg writes, “Pouring trillions into subsidies for unreliable renewables and electric cars is not what will fix the climate.” The climate researcher suggests that a smarter approach for the US would be to “bankroll innovation” like “nuclear, carbon capture, and next-gen renewables that are cheaper than current fossil fuels and don’t end when the wind stops or the sun sets.” Read more here.
Related Commentary