[Subscription Required] Why can’t lawmakers in Washington compromise on immigration? Conventional wisdom blames President Trump’s political base, with its uncompromising hostility toward immigrants. That turns out to be nonsense.
Recently Nate Silver asked us why our polls don’t bounce around much. In our polling, Hillary Clinton had a small lead in September that expanded to five or six points after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. Since then a lot has happened – sex tapes, charges of election rigging, WikiLeaks – but our numbers have budged only slightly.
Going into September, Hillary Clinton has a sizable advantage over Donald Trump: five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics’ polling average. The Upshot, the New York Times’ polling blog, gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning the presidency, while British Sky Bet gives Clinton four times as good a chance as Trump.