Recently Nate Silver asked us why our polls don’t bounce around much. In our polling, Hillary Clinton had a small lead in September that expanded to five or six points after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. Since then a lot has happened – sex tapes, charges of election rigging, WikiLeaks – but our numbers have budged only slightly.
Going into September, Hillary Clinton has a sizable advantage over Donald Trump: five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics’ polling average. The Upshot, the New York Times’ polling blog, gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning the presidency, while British Sky Bet gives Clinton four times as good a chance as Trump.