Conventional wisdom about presidential campaign strategy changed around the turn of the current century. Traditionally, candidates were advised to move to the center in the general election campaign after catering to the party bases in the primaries. Not anymore. George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns exemplify the shift.
[Subscription Required] Why can’t lawmakers in Washington compromise on immigration? Conventional wisdom blames President Trump’s political base, with its uncompromising hostility toward immigrants. That turns out to be nonsense.
Recently Nate Silver asked us why our polls don’t bounce around much. In our polling, Hillary Clinton had a small lead in September that expanded to five or six points after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. Since then a lot has happened – sex tapes, charges of election rigging, WikiLeaks – but our numbers have budged only slightly.