Yoel Guzansky

W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow

Yoel Guzansky was a 2016-2017 W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow, a 2016-2017 Fulbright Scholar and a 2016-2017 Israel Institute post-doc Fellow. Dr. Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University. Before he joined INSS, he was in charge of strategic issues at Israel's National Security Council in the Prime Minister's Office, coordinating work on the Iranian nuclear challenge. He served under four National Security Advisers and three Prime Ministers. Dr. Guzansky completed training offered by the US State Department; the US Department of Energy; the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. He specializes in issues of Gulf security and Middle East strategic issues. He is the author of the recently published The Arab Gulf States and Reform in the Middle East (2015) and The Arab World on the Road to State Failure (2016).

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

The Crisis In The Gulf: A Case Study Of The Effectiveness Of Sanctions As A Tool For Conducting Policy

by Nizan Feldman, Yoel Guzanskyvia Canada Free Press
Thursday, August 24, 2017

The boycott of Qatar by its neighbors in the Gulf is expected to affect the rate of its growth, but if Qatar succeeds in easing the capital flight, it will not result in a severe, long-term recession. As most of the costs incurred in the retreat from integration among the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council affect the longer term and will not create immediate pressure on the countries boycotting Qatar, it is reasonable to assume that the costs also will not play a central role in shaping their policies in the crisis. These assumptions do not contradict the assertion that continuation of the crisis could have structural effects on the region’s economy.

Analysis and Commentary

The Arab World On The Road To State Failure

by Kobi Michael, Yoel Guzanskyvia The Institute for National Security Studies
Monday, July 10, 2017

This book examines the phenomenon of the failed state in the Arab world. In order to understand the systemic and regional implications of this phenomenon, which has spread throughout the Arab world and intensified as a result of the past six years of regional upheaval, we make use of the theoretical and empirical infrastructures in the relevant professional literature as well as a conceptual infrastructure constructed specifically for this study. 

Analysis and Commentary

Qatar Under Siege: Regional Implications And Ramifications For The Palestinian Arena

by Kobi Michael, Yoel Guzanskyvia The Institute for National Security Studies
Monday, June 12, 2017

The foreign policy of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—has never been a model of cooperation and unity. Even the dramatic severing of relations with Qatar and closing the aerial, territorial, and naval spheres to it—as initiated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE—is not indicative of a change.

Analysis and Commentary

President Trump In Riyadh: A New Start For US-Saudi Relations?

by Eldad Shavit, Yoel Guzanskyvia The Institute for National Security Studies
Friday, June 2, 2017

President Trump’s visit to Riyadh was noteworthy for the grand reception his Saudi hosts prepared for him and for the announcement that the two nations will advance a long list of bilateral military and economic agreements. The Arab Islamic Summit organized by the Saudis was intended to demonstrate their status in the Muslim and Arab worlds.

Analysis and Commentary

Why The Trump Administration Should Reconsider Oman

by Sigurd Neubauer, Yoel Guzanskyvia The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Following his historic address to the U.S.-Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Donald J. Trump held bilateral talks with every Gulf Cooperation Council leader except for Oman’s deputy prime minister, Sayyid Fahd al-Said, who had his meeting cancelled at the last minute with no public explanation.

Map of the Middle East
Analysis and Commentary

An 'Arab NATO' Including Israel Can Exist If It Stays Quiet

by Yoel Guzanskyvia The Hill
Wednesday, May 24, 2017

In the past, when Arab governments joined forces it was against another common enemy — Israel. Nowadays, President Trump is expected to lay out a plan to create a so-called "Arab NATO", a force that might even have room for Israel in a later stage. In a press conference with President Donald Trump upon his visit to Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "For the first time in my lifetime, and for the first time in the life of my country, Arab countries in the region do not see Israel as an enemy, but, increasingly, as an ally".

Analysis and Commentary

Why Are The Israelis And The Saudis Cosying Up?

by Yoel Guzansky, Clive Jonesvia Newsweek
Thursday, May 18, 2017

Arab Gulf states have reportedly offered to take concrete steps to establish better relations with Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make a significant overture aimed at restarting the Middle East peace process, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Analysis and Commentary

The Challenge Of The Oil Market To The Gulf States

by Yoel Guzansky, Shmuel Evenvia The Institute for National Security Studies
Wednesday, May 10, 2017

The Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar) continue to face much volatility in the global oil market. In recent years, the price of a barrel of OPEC oil (the OPEC basket price) has declined from an average of $106 in 2013 to $96 in 2014, $50 in 2015, and $41 in 2016. 

Analysis and Commentary

Why Trump Will Disappoint The Saudis

by Yoel Guzansky, Sigurd Neubauervia Foreign Affairs
Wednesday, May 10, 2017

This is not the reset they're looking for.

Analysis and Commentary

Oman After Qaboos: Challenges Facing The Sultanate

by Yoel Guzanskyvia The Institute for National Security Studies
Thursday, May 4, 2017

Other than a few localized incidents of violence, Oman navigated the regional upheavals of recent years while maintaining stability. However, the sultanate is now facing several challenges liable to upset this state of affairs, led by the economic crisis, which has reignited public unrest, as well as a possible crisis of succession that may erupt with the death of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, who has no officially designated heir.