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Long-Run Trends In The U.S. SES-Achievement Gap

by Eric Hanushek, Paul E. Peterson, Laura M. Talpey, Ludger Woessmannvia Analysis
Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Rising inequality in the United States has raised concerns about potentially widening gaps in educational achievement by socio-economic status (SES). Using assessments from LTT-NAEP, Main-NAEP, TIMSS, and PISA that are psychometrically linked over time, we trace trends in achievement for U.S. student cohorts born between 1954 and 2001. 

A Fiscal Theory Of Monetary Policy With Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt

by John H. Cochranevia Analysis
Tuesday, February 11, 2020

I construct a simple model with sticky prices and interest rate targets, closed by fiscal theory of the price level with long-term debt and fiscal and monetary policy rules. Fiscal surpluses rise following periods of deficit, to repay accumulated debt, but surpluses do not respond to arbitrary unexpected inflation and deflation, so fiscal policy remains active. 

Are Large Deficits And Debt Dangerous?

by Michael J. Boskinvia Analysis
Tuesday, February 11, 2020

The Traditional View (TV) of large deficits and debt is they have large economic costs, save in a recession and early recovery, because they crowd out investment and lower future income, and taken to extremes, can cause inflation and even a financial crisis.

Breaking Out Of The Democratic Slump

by Larry Diamondvia Analysis
Thursday, February 6, 2020

Since 2006, democracy in the world has been trending downward. A number of liberal democracies are becoming less liberal, and authoritarian regimes are developing more repressive tendencies. Democracies are dying at the hands of elected authoritarian populists who neuter or take over the institutions meant to constrain them. Changes in the international environment, as well as technological developments and growing inequality, have contributed to this democratic slump. 

The Fiscal Roots Of Inflation

by John H. Cochranevia Analysis
Thursday, February 6, 2020

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each component via a vector autoregression, in response to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount rates, rather than deficits, account for most inflation variation. 

President Trump’s State Visit To India

by David C. Mulfordvia Analysis
Thursday, February 6, 2020

President Trump’s state visit to India in late February is being hurriedly put together, reports the NY Times, because “Mr Trump is apparently eager to get out of the Washington cauldron and as far away from the impeachment debate as possible”.

The Fiscal Effects Of The Public Option

by Lanhee J. Chen, Tom Church, Daniel Heilvia Analysis
Monday, January 27, 2020

Supporters of a federal public option contend that a government-run health plan will reduce federal deficits. These projected deficit savings are predicated on two major, but unrealistic, assumptions. First, public option proposals assume that the government will reimburse hospitals and providers at rates lower than paid by private insurers. Second, the proposals require plan premiums to fully cover plan costs. 

Unconstitutional Medicare-For-All

via Analysis
Wednesday, November 13, 2019

The possible constitutional challenges that could be raised against Medicare-for-All.

The Impeachment Conundrum

by Larry Diamondvia The American Interest
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The Democrats are facing a dilemma: If they defend democratic norms by acting to remove President Trump from office, they risk getting dragged into a polarizing style of politics that works to his political advantage.

The Economic Effects Of Private Equity Buyouts

by Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, Josh Lerner, Javier Mirandavia Analysis
Friday, October 4, 2019

We examine thousands of U.S. private equity (PE) buyouts from 1980 to 2013, a period that saw huge swings in credit market tightness and GDP growth. Our results show striking, systematic differences in the real-side effects of PE buyouts, depending on buyout type and external conditions. 

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