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Iran on the Brink: Challenges & Opportunities for Washington

by Sanam Vakilvia Analysis
Wednesday, April 25, 2018

In this essay, Sanam Vakil assesses the four interconnected economic, regional, domestic, and nuclear deal challenges besetting Iran.  These challenges have emerged due to renewed US pressure against Iran but also stem from Iran’s endemic factional tensions between pragmatists and conservatives and their ideological differences on how to best protect the Islamic Republic.  Vakil also argues that the gravity of these challenges offers a unique opportunity to the Trump administration to move beyond its traditional containment policy toward a meaningful grand strategy to reduce US-Iranian tensions. 

Government Spending Discourages Work: What's Behind the Numbers?

via Analysis
Monday, February 26, 2018

This is the statistical backup for the statements Edward P. Lazear made in the February 26, 2018 The Wall Street Journal op-ed Government Spending Discourages Work".

Officer Personnel Management and the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980

by Timothy Kanevia United States Senate Committee On Armed Services
Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Hoover Institution fellow Tim Kane's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Priorities on the Path to Normalization

by Kevin Warshvia Cato Institute
Thursday, November 16, 2017

I was honored to serve as a governor of the Federal Reserve during the crisis. The times were tough. But the institution was strong. And sustained by a Fed staff that was tired and tireless, hopeful and humble, brilliant without bravado.

How to Make a Good Tax-Reform Plan Even Better

by Edward Paul Lazearvia Analysis
Friday, October 20, 2017

This is the statistical backup for the statements Edward P. Lazear made in the October, 2017 The Wall Street Journal op-ed How to Make a Good Tax-Reform Plan Even Better”.

A Migration System In The Making: Demographic Dynamics And Migration Policies In North America And The Northern Triangle Of Central America

via Analysis
Wednesday, October 11, 2017

In recent years, the three countries in North America (Canada, the United States and Mexico) and the three in the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA: Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) have experienced large human mobility within the region. Traditionally dominated by South-North migration, with the US and Canada as the main destinations, this migration system is now more complex as it includes new flows, places of origin, and destinations. This study analyzes socioeconomic and demographic dynamics in the sending and receiving countries alongside the migration policies in the three main destinations to help understand (a) to what extent flows between and within North America and the NTCA may continue in the short term and (b) what changes in migrants profiles can be expected in the future.

Syria-Iraq: Limiting Iranian Influence Implies Returning To Realpolitik

by Fabrice Balanche via Analysis
Thursday, October 5, 2017

Destroying the Islamic State (IS) and limiting the influence of Iran is a difficult project. The United States has more capabilities in Syria than in Iraq to destroy IS and limit Iran. The Sunni Arab tribes of the Euphrates Valley no longer support the Islamic State and are ready to join those who will liberate them, which explains the effectiveness of the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish-Arab) against IS. Thus the liberation of Raqqa could thus take place in fall 2017, provided Turkey does not launch an offensive against the Syrian Kurds.

Fiscal policies and the prices of labor: a comparison of the U.K. and U.S.

by Casey B. Mulliganvia Springer Open
Friday, August 11, 2017

This paper measures the 2007–13 evolution of employment tax rates in the U.K. and the U.S. The U.S. changes are greater, in the direction of taxing a greater fraction of the value created by employment, and primarily achieved with new implicit tax rates. Even though both countries implemented a temporary “fiscal stimulus,” their tax rate dynamics were different: the U.S. stimulus increased rates, whereas the U.K. stimulus reduced them. The U.K. later increased the tax on employment during its “austerity” period. Tax rate measurements are a first ingredient for cross-country comparisons of labor markets during and after the financial crisis.

Long-Term Issues For Central Banks

by Jaime Caruana, Kevin Warshvia Bank for International Settlements
Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The global political, economic and financial landscape is constantly evolving. Some of the changes may prove short-lived. But others may be slow-moving and persistent, and only detectable over time as evidence accumulates. Although central banks’ day-to-day operations and policymaking tend to focus on near- or medium-term developments, longer-term trends and structural changes will at some point come into the picture – not least because of their impact on the economic relationships that are central to policy formulation and analysis.

The US Arms Control And Disarmament Agency In 1961–63

by James Goodbyvia Analysis
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Public policy issues involving a complex mix of problems, exemplified today by climate change and the threat of nuclear war, require governance by institutions whose mandates and cultures embrace technological expertise as well as diplomatic and military skills. This paper is a case study of how such an institution operated during the Kennedy Administration to deal with the growing threat of radioactive debris in the environment and the threat of nuclear proliferation, and also put US-Soviet relations on a new trajectory. The 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty might not have been concluded during the Kennedy Administration had the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency not been established in 1961.

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