The negotiations in Vienna about a return to the JCPOA are continuing, at least as of this writing in late May. Perhaps there will be a breakthrough soon, one way or another, even before this Caravan goes to press, or the talks may drag on into the summer until a compromise is reached or until one side decides to call it quits.
Within the next several weeks the United States and its partners could well agree with Iran for the ‘return’ of the U.S. and Iran to the provisions of the 2015 “Joint Comprehensive Program of Action” or JCPOA regulating Iran’s nuclear programs.
China does not have a fixed Iran doctrine. And Iran does not have a historic China doctrine, as it usually places its geostrategic emphasis on the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. But the two revolutionary regimes are coming together.
Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism since 1984. Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Qods Force, Iran has forged relationships with like-minded militias in neighboring countries, but primarily in Iraq.
The conflict in Yemen is poorly understood in the United States. The general view in policy and government circles is that Saudi Arabia is the principal cause of the crisis, and that if the Saudis can be made to stop their military campaign against the Houthi rebel movement, the war would end quickly.
The core state in the Arabian Peninsula is Saudi Arabia. The rest are small countries with less than one million citizens each. Hence, if we want to talk about Gulf policy towards Iran we need to talk about Saudi policy.
Yes, Iran really matters and so does the Middle East. Despite signs that the Biden administration hopes to downplay U.S engagement in the region, U.S. national interests remain at stake there. Notwithstanding major changes and upheavals, most of these interests continue to be relevant for America’s national security and for its allies and partners.
The future Middle East matters to the United States. Peace, stability and prosperity in the region impacts our vital interests. The four factors outlined here could dramatically affect the U.S. capacity to safeguard our interests in the near to mid-term.
