Governance In An Emerging New World

Monday, February 25, 2019

Winter Series, Issue 319

From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, February 25, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays
Essays

Emerging Technologies and National Security: Russia, NATO, & the European Theater

by Philip Breedlove, Margaret E. Kosalvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, February 25, 2019

Emerging innovations within today’s most cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas are cited as carrying the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and life as we know it; others have argued that such technologies will yield doomsday scenarios and that military applications of such technologies have even greater potential than nuclear weapons to radically change the balance of power.

Essays

Technology Converges; Non-State Actors Benefit

by T.X. Hammesvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, February 25, 2019

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will provide insurgents and terrorists with capabilities that, until very recently, were the preserve of large, powerful, wealthy states. The convergence of new technologies will provide them access to relatively cheap, long-range, autonomous weapons. To define the problem this presents to the United States, this paper will first explore the technologies—powerful small warheads, autonomous drones, task-specific artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing—that are providing increased range, numbers, and lethality for dramatically lower cost today.

Essays

Information: The New Pacific Coin of the Realm

by Admiral Gary Roughead, Emelia Spencer Probasco, Ralph Semmelvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, February 25, 2019

History informs and rhymes, and the admonition of Isaiah Bowman is as valid today as it was in 1946. A participant in the World War I peace conference in Paris and the president of the Johns Hopkins University, whose Applied Physics Laboratory produced breakthrough innovations during World War II and the Cold War (and today), Bowman understood international challenges and appreciated the role of technology in defining national power. He also understood that it is not one sector or particular endeavor that underpins national security—it is the collective responsibility of society.

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Essays

Protecting Democracy in an Era of Cyber Information War

by Joseph Nyevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The early years of the Internet were marked by a libertarian optimism about its decentralizing and democratizing effects. Information would be widely available and undercut the monopolies of authoritarian governments. Big Brother would be defeated. President Clinton believed that China would liberalize and that Communist Party efforts to control the Internet were like trying to “nail jello to the wall.”

Governance In An Emerging New World: The Information Challenge To Democracy

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The communications revolution has surrounded society with information, some right and some wrong, and enabled people to communicate and organize like never before. It gives new dimensions to the old challenge of governing over diversity. Participants examine the rapid spread of information and means of communicating and suggest responses to the governance challenges posed by social media, fake news, and the decline of confidence in institutions.

Featuring Niall Ferguson and Joseph Nye, and moderated by Condoleezza, the Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "The Information Challenge to Democracy" on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Event
Essays

What Is To Be Done? Safeguarding Democratic Governance In The Age Of Network Platforms

by Niall Fergusonvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Once upon a time, only the elite could network globally. David Rockefeller—the grandson of the oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller—was a pioneer networker. According to a recent report, “He recorded contact information along with every meeting he had with about 100,000 people world-wide on white 3-by-5-inch index cards. He amassed about 200,000 of the cards, which filled a custom-built Rolodex machine, a 5-foot high electronic device.”

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

China’s Development Challenge

by J. Stapleton Royvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

Over the last forty years, China has stunned the world with the brilliant success of its reform and openness policies in modernizing China at a pace never seen before in world history. Forty years after launching these policies, the size of China’s GDP measured in purchasing power parity terms has surpassed that of the United States. Per capita income has skyrocketed but lags behind the OECD countries because of the immense size of China’s population, now numbering roughly 1.4 billion.

Essays

How Chinese Authorities and Individuals Use the Internet

by Maria Repnikovavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

The adoption of the Internet by the Chinese government in the 1990s was part of China’s ambitious economic reform and opening up. Introducing information and communication technology was seen as a pathway toward innovation, attraction of foreign direct investment, and global competitiveness. In the past two decades, China has significantly reaped the benefits of the Internet. It is now at the forefront of digital revolution. China is moving quickly toward a cashless economy and leads the world in digital commerce, accounting for 40 percent of global e-commerce transactions. 

Essays

China’s Rise in Artificial Intelligence: Ingredients and Economic Implications

by Kai-Fu Lee , Matt Sheehan via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

After nearly four decades as the “factory of the world,”China today is stepping into a new role in the global economy: as a hub for innovative applications of artificial intelligence.According to one recent study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, of the $15.7 trillion in global wealth AI is expected to generate by 2030, a full $7 trillion will occur in China alone.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

AI Titans, Entangled?

by Elsa Kania via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

As China and the United States enter a “new era,” in which rivalry and confrontation are starting to extend across all dimensions of this bilateral relationship, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a new focus of competition, while also providing opportunities for continued cooperation. Despite and beyond the hype, AI technologies are increasingly recognized as of strategic significance to the future of economic development and military modernization. As such, it is hardly surprising that the United States and China have highly prioritized AI, though taking quite different approaches to policy.

Essays

China’s Demographic Prospects to 2040: Opportunities, Constraints, Potential Policy Responses

by Nicholas Eberstadtvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

For any serious attempt to assess China’s future outlook, an examination of the country’s population prospects is not only advisable but absolutely indispensable. There are two reasons for this.   

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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