Governance In An Emerging New World

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 919

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation
From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Observations From The Roundtable
Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The challenges posed by nuclear weapons and the potential for further nuclear proliferation cut across many of the issues we address in our project. Mixing nuclear weapons with the complex landscape of advanced conventional systems, space, and cyber explored in earlier sessions raises the possibility of escalation, perhaps by miscalculation, to nuclear use. In our roundtable discussion at Hoover on the changing risks and opportunities of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy, participants lamented the lack of personal memory—in both political leadership and the general public—of the unique danger posed by nuclear weapons. 

Essays
Essays

Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Steps For The 21st Century

by Ernest J. Monizvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The dual nature of nuclear fission—both risk and opportunity—was recognized almost immediately after the seminal physics discoveries of the late 1930s and was articulated as a matter of policy in Eisenhower’s consequential Atoms for Peace speech in 1953. The following years and decades saw both the continued build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals, eventually reaching tens of thousands of weapons, and Western assistance to Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, and others in starting nuclear reactor programs, often with the supply of high-enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel. The irony of having U.S.-supplied weapons-useable material in HEU fuel sitting in Tehran even today is not lost on many participants in the non-proliferation dialogue.

Essays

Nuclear Dangers in an Emerging World

by Sam Nunnvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

I find it distasteful when people quote themselves, so let me quote three other people. And those people would be George Shultz, Bill Perry, and Henry Kissinger. These were the words they used 12 years ago, in the Wall Street Journal, “Unless urgent new actions are taken, the United States soon will be compelled to enter into a new nuclear era, that will be more precarious, psychologically disorientating, and economically more costly than was the Cold War deterrence.”

Essays

A Troubled Transition: Emerging Nuclear Forces in India and Pakistan

by Ashley J. Tellisvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The competitive and often antagonistic relationships between China and India and between India and Pakistan have deep historical roots that predate their possession of nuclear weaponry. The Indo-Pakistani rivalry dates back to 1947 when both emerged as newly independent states from the erstwhile British Raj in the Indian subcontinent.[i]

About the Program

E.g., 10 / 28 / 2020
E.g., 10 / 28 / 2020
Monday, January 14, 2019

Winter Series, Issue 119

Africa In An Emerging World

From the Conveners

Monday, January 14, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

by George Moose Monday, January 14, 2019
article

Essays

by Anthony Carroll, Eric Obscherning Monday, January 14, 2019
essay
by Chester A. Crocker Monday, January 14, 2019
essay
by Mark Giordano, Elisabeth Bassini Monday, January 14, 2019
essay
by Jack A. Goldstone Monday, January 14, 2019
essay
by Andre Pienaar, Zach Beecher Monday, January 14, 2019
essay
Monday, December 3, 2018

Fall Series, Issue 418

Latin America In An Emerging World

From the Conveners

Monday, December 3, 2018
article

Observations From The Roundtable

Monday, December 3, 2018
article

Essays

by Richard Aitkenhead, Benjamin Sywulka Monday, December 3, 2018
essay
by Víctor M. García Guerrero, Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo, Claudia Masferrer Monday, December 3, 2018
essay
by Ernesto Silva Monday, December 3, 2018
essay
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Fall Series, Issue 318

The Information Challenge to Democracy

From the Conveners

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
article

Observations From The Roundtable

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
article

Essays

by Niall Ferguson Tuesday, November 13, 2018
essay
by Joseph Nye Tuesday, November 13, 2018
essay
Monday, October 29, 2018

Fall Series, Issue 218

China in an Emerging World

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Essays

The Commercialization of Decision-Making: Towards a Regulatory Framework to Address Machine Bias over the Internet

by Dipayan Ghoshvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The consumer internet has exacerbated the discrimination problem. The business model that sits behind the front end of the internet industry is one that focuses on the unchecked collection of personal information, the continual creation and refinement of behavioral profiles on the individual user, and the development of algorithms that curate content. These actions all perpetuate the new pareto optimal reality of the commercial logic underlying the modern digitalized media ecosystem: that every act executed by a firm, whether a transfer of data or an injection of content, is by its nature necessarily done in the commercial interests of the firm because technological progress has enabled such granular profiteering. This novelty in the media markets has created a tension in the face of the public motive for nondiscriminatory policies; where adequate transparency, public accountability, or regulatory engagement against industry practices are lacking, it is directly in the firm’s interest to discriminate should discriminatory economic policies suit its profit-maximizing motive. This paper discusses this technological development and offers policy responses to counteract these breaches against the subjects of internet-based discrimination.

Essays

How Will Machine Learning Transform the Labor Market?

by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Prasanna Tambevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

The twenty-first century will be the century of intelligent machines. Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun to transform the economy as it as enables machines to do more and more of the cognitive tasks that were once done only by humans. In the coming decade, many existing tasks will be replaced by machines, while new ones will emerge. Almost every job will be affected in some way and most will need to be redesigned. Businesses will rise and fall depending on how well they understand, foster and harness the changing skills that are needed to be productive. Economies will thrive if they can create and update the institutions needed to create these skills.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, May 6, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Observations From The Roundtable

The Middle East in an Emerging World: Observations from the Roundtable

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

When experts discuss the Middle East and North Africa, they often begin with the Shi’a–Sunni divide, the Israeli-Palestine conflict, or the prevalence of Islamic terrorism. We’d like to add another dimension. We know these conflicts have and will persist. But as the papers presented in this volume attest—and as the roundtable discussion confirmed—the individual countries in this region are also affected by the broader forces we have been studying throughout this project: demographic change, emerging technologies, and weakening governance.

Essays

Islamic Republic of Iran in an Age of Global Transitions: Challenges for a Theocratic Iran

by Abbas Milani, Roya Pakzadvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

For the last 150 years, Iran, like most countries in the industrializing world, has experienced the tumults of two epochal global revolutions—the industrial revolution that changed the nature of labor and now the advent of the “second Machine Age,”2 which is changing the nature of not just labor, but life and leisure, knowledge and information. In the same period, Iran has gone through the travails of two domestic revolutions—the first in 1905-07 when the country’s elite tried to introduce democracy and modernity  to the country, and the second in 1979 when a democratic mass movement overthrew the monarchy but eventually begot the rise of a theocratic despotism keen on dismantling as much of modernity as possible.

Essays

The Impact of Demographic and Digital Transformations on Turkey’s Governance Deficit

by Aykan Erdemirvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

Turkey is a country of paradoxes. Ankara has been a NATO member since 1952 but is about to receive the S-400 air defense system from the transatlantic alliance’s main adversary, Russia, and consequently face sanctions from its longtime ally, the United States. Ankara has been undertaking accession negotiations with the European Union since 2005, but Turkish officials happen to be deeply Eurosceptic, frequently hurling insults at their European counterparts and targeting Western values.

Mousque of Al-aqsa in Old Town - Jerusalem, Israel
Essays

Building Democracy on Sand: The State of Israel in the 21st Century

by Arye Carmonvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

In the second decade of the 21st Century, the State of Israel is still engaged in the early stages of building political sovereignty for the Jewish people, for the first time in seventy generations. The discussion of contemporary Israel is based on this historical context, the absence of a tradition of responsibility for political sovereignty.

Essays

Challenges to Stability in Egypt

by Lisa Blaydesvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

The last ten years have seen forms of political disruption within Egypt that were virtually unimaginable a decade ago—from the 2011 protest uprisings; the 2012 election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi to the Egyptian presidency; the 2013 coup d’état which unseated Morsi; and the 2014 formal assumption of power by current Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt has witnessed a period of staggering political change. Few analysts would disagree with the statement that demographic circumstances and technological developments played a crucial role in sparking and sustaining the popular movement that set this chain of events into motion.

Essays

Innovation and Entrepreneurialism in the Middle East and North Africa: The Cases of Egypt, Tunisia,and the UAE

by Houssem Aoudivia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

While the so-called “Arab Spring” was an awakening for the region’s people and its powerholders, the events of 2010–2011 changed the trajectory of innovation and entrepreneurship only slightly and in specific, local contexts. This paper endeavors to compare Egypt, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with three major objectives in mind.

Essays

Youth, Technology, and Political Change in Saudi Arabia

by Hicham Alaouivia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, April 22, 2019

There are two lenses by which to view the political potential of Saudi Arabia’s large, tech-savvy youth generation. The first, optimistic perspective holds that given their social awareness, technological skillset, and creative potential, the Kingdom’s millions of young citizens will be the engine for constructive progress. That progress is defined by post-oil economic transformation, and hence renewed political stability and national unity under the House of Saud. This is the image invoked by Saudi Arabia’s grandiose Vision 2030 initiative, as well as its architect, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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