Governance In An Emerging New World

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 919

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation
From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Essays
Essays

Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Steps For The 21st Century

by Ernest J. Monizvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The dual nature of nuclear fission—both risk and opportunity—was recognized almost immediately after the seminal physics discoveries of the late 1930s and was articulated as a matter of policy in Eisenhower’s consequential Atoms for Peace speech in 1953. The following years and decades saw both the continued build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals, eventually reaching tens of thousands of weapons, and Western assistance to Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, and others in starting nuclear reactor programs, often with the supply of high-enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel. The irony of having U.S.-supplied weapons-useable material in HEU fuel sitting in Tehran even today is not lost on many participants in the non-proliferation dialogue.

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Governance In An Emerging New World: Latin America

Monday, December 3, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Foreign policy starts in the neighborhood. Mexico, Central America, and South America are at the tail-end of decades of rapid workforce growth, a period during which migration was central to their relationships with the United States. The panel will address how a tighter labor supply, alongside new means of production, will affect the economic development of our southern neighbors. It will also consider whether the public transparency offered by new forms of communications can improve governance, and with it, growth.

The Hoover Institution hosted a public panel discussion "Latin America In An Emerging World" on Monday, December 3, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event was Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Event
Essays

Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges for the Governance of a Fragile Continent

by Ernesto Silva via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Facebook Live. That was the platform chosen by Jair Bolsonaro to issue his first statements after learning of his triumph in the presidential elections in Brazil in October 2018.1 It was not a speech at the headquarters of his party or in a public place. It was not the television channels or the radio stations that intermediated in the communication with the citizens. More than 300,000 people saw their statements live, and within the hour there were more than two million people who had seen his eight-minutes long message, approximately, quickly registering nearly 350,000 comments and reactions. 

Essays

Emerging Demographic Challenges and Persistent Trends in Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America

by Víctor M. García Guerrero, Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo, Claudia Masferrervia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Population dynamics, often conceived only by looking at its size or volume, has defined opportunities and challenges throughout history. However, the evolution and changes of the demographic components of a population (fertility, mortality, and migration) are key for understanding the nature of these challenges and opportunities. In this document we analyze past and future demographic dynamics of the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) and Mexico, the Latin American country of North America. 

Essays

Digital Transformation in Central America: Marginalization or Empowerment?

by Richard Aitkenhead, Benjamin Sywulkavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

As Digital Transformation reaches Central America, a strategic question arises: will it result in more marginalization, or in more empowerment? Writing from a practitioner’s perspective building on decades of lessons learned, the authors propose design principles for the transition. The region is systemically unprepared for the global forces that are hitting it, and the ability of the average citizen to generate income will increasingly decrease.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, December 3, 2018

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

Protecting Democracy in an Era of Cyber Information War

by Joseph Nyevia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The early years of the Internet were marked by a libertarian optimism about its decentralizing and democratizing effects.1 Information would be widely available and undercut the monopolies of authoritarian governments. Big Brother would be defeated. President Clinton believed that China would liberalize and that Communist Party efforts to control the Internet were like trying to “nail jello to the wall.”2 The Bush and Obama administrations shared this optimism and promoted an Internet Freedom Agenda that included subsidies and technologies to assist dissidents in authoritarian states to communicate.

Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: The Information Challenge to Democracy

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The information and communications revolution has complicated governance everywhere. It has broken down traditional borders: people can communicate, organize, and act both with their fellow citizens and across country boundaries. The age-old challenge of governing over diversity grows more difficult by the day.

Governance In An Emerging New World: The Information Challenge To Democracy

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The communications revolution has surrounded society with information, some right and some wrong, and enabled people to communicate and organize like never before. It gives new dimensions to the old challenge of governing over diversity. Participants examine the rapid spread of information and means of communicating and suggest responses to the governance challenges posed by social media, fake news, and the decline of confidence in institutions.

Featuring Niall Ferguson and Joseph Nye, and moderated by Condoleezza, the Hoover Institution hosted a public panel discussion "The Information Challenge to Democracy" on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event was Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Event
Essays

What Is To Be Done? Safeguarding Democratic Governance In The Age Of Network Platforms

by Niall Fergusonvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Once upon a time, only the elite could network globally. David Rockefeller—the grandson of the oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller—was a pioneer networker. According to a recent report, “He recorded contact information along with every meeting he had with about 100,000 people world-wide on white 3-by-5-inch index cards. He amassed about 200,000 of the cards, which filled a custom-built Rolodex machine, a 5-foot high electronic device.” 

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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