Governance In An Emerging New World

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Spring Series, Issue 719

Stability in an Age of Disruption
From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Observations From The Roundtable
Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: Stability in an Emerging World

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The world’s population is being reordered. From 2020 to 2060, the working-age populations (15-64) of Europe, South Korea, and Japan are projected to shrink by over 140 million people, and, come 2060, Germany and Japan will have more people over the age of 70 than under the age of 20. The U.S. working-age population will also likely grow in that period, but as the U.S. Census Bureau has observed, the growth will be driven primarily by immigration. At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will increase by nearly one billion. That region plus nine countries—India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Guatemala, and Honduras—will account for the vast majority of the world’s new working-age men and women, over 1.4 billion in total.

Essays
Essays

How Will Demographic Transformations Affect Democracy in the Coming Decades?

by Jack A. Goldstone, Larry Diamondvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

In 2007–2009 a major drought—the worst in forty years—struck northern Syria, the country’s agricultural breadbasket and a region that had already been suffering from loss of irrigation subsidies and water shortages. Syria’s young and fast-growing population meant that over a million people in the region were directly affected by the drought. In “the 2007/2008 agriculture season, nearly 75 percent of these households suffered total crop failure.” Hundreds of thousands left their lands and moved to the cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus. Because Syria already was suffering from widespread popular discontent over political exclusion and corruption, these refugees added to the existing weight of urban misery and anger with the regime. Two years later, when a rebellion broke out in southern Syria, revolt quickly spread to these northern cities and precipitated civil war. The war in turn created millions more refugees, who spread to Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, and then to Europe, where a sudden surge of over one million war refugees sought asylum in 2015.

Essays

Governance Challenges to Infrastructure and the Built Environment Posed by Climate Change

by Alice Hillvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii sits two miles above sea level and over 2,200 miles from the nearest continent. For decades, scientists in this government laboratory have collected data on the atmosphere. In recent years, the world’s eyes have been fixed on a particular set of numbers coming out of Mauna Loa—readings of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), a key heat-trapping gas associated with climate change. Since the late 19th century, CO2 emissions have grown to unprecedented levels. In 2013, the daily average concentration of CO2 surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time in modern history. Emissions of CO2 continue to rise, reaching the largest amount ever recorded in 2018, according to the International Energy Agency. Greenhouse gas emissions have resulted in an increase of average global surface temperatures of approximately 1°C since the 1880s.

Essays

The Democratic Distemper

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

I have been tasked to write on governance in the contemporary era, a time when many knowledgeable commentators believe that democracies across the western world are performing poorly in the face of new challenges arising from demographic and technological change. Commentary on the state of contemporary liberal democracy clearly tends toward the pessimistic: The vague and persistent feeling that democracies have become ungovernable has been growing steadily in western Europe. The case of Britain has become the most dramatic example of this malaise…

Essays

On “Forces of History”: Easy as One-Two- Three? Not Exactly

by Charles Hillvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The tension between the concepts of “civilization” and “the forces of history” can be tracked around the world from deep antiquity until at least the early 20th century. Since then, for many political reasons, neither the idea of civilization or historically transformative forces has been considered worthy of attention or even to possess intellectual legitimacy for serious world leaders. This may now however be changing as, for example, the European Union’s disregard for the continent’s civilization (as in the determination not to refer to Christianity in its draft constitutions) has troubled many.

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Essays

China’s Demographic Prospects to 2040: Opportunities, Constraints, Potential Policy Responses

by Nicholas Eberstadtvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 29, 2018

For any serious attempt to assess China’s future outlook, an examination of the country’s population prospects is not only advisable but absolutely indispensable. There are two reasons for this. First: of all areas of inquiry of interest to us at this gathering about China’s future, it is perhaps China’s demographic future that is *least* uncertain over the coming generation. The reason, quite simply, is that the overwhelming majority of the people who will be living in China in (say) the year 2040 are already alive, living there today. 

Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: Russia In An Emerging World

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Advancing technologies and demographics portend disruption in Russia, as in many other parts of the world, but volatility has been the rule rather than the exception in this historic power. The fall of the Soviet Union left modern Russia in a state of disrepair. Its economy collapsed alongside its government. Its population decreased, and fertility plummeted. To those living in Russia at the time, it was deeply destabilizing.

From the Conveners

Letter From the Conveners: Russia In An Emerging New World

by George P. Shultz, James Timbievia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Dramatic changes are afoot. The future will not be like the past.  Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as the workforces of some countries age and shrink, while others expand. The Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic transformations.  We will explore the implications for our democracy, our economy, and our national security, and for other countries.

Essays

The Influence of Current Demographic Processes on International Relations and International Security: The Russian Take

by Anatoly Vishnevskyvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

One of the key developments in 20th and 21st century history has been the demographic revolution, or demographic transition, which radically changed the course of fundamental demographic processes involving the birth rate, mortality and migration. Demographic change affects the international situation both directly and indirectly, through the social processes experienced by all societies which embrace this change.

Essays

Russia and the Solecism of Power

by David Hollowayvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Nearly every discussion about Russia raises three questions: Who is to blame?  What is to be done?  And where is Russia heading?  This paper focuses on the third question, though the other two cannot be ignored entirely. Now is a particularly appropriate time to ask where Russia is headed, for the world is undergoing profound and rapid transformation at several levels. We are witnessing dramatic technological changes. These processes of change and transformation – technological, economic, demographic, and climatic – present great challenges for governance at all levels.  

Essays

The Missed Opportunity of Technological Breakthrough in Putin’s Russia

by Michael McFaulvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Russians are richer today than they have ever been in their thousand-year history. Today, Russians enjoy a GDP-per capita of $11,9500, down from a 2013 peak of $16,000, but moving in the right direction again. Between 2000 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by 83%, productivity grew by 70%, Russia’s share in the world economy grew fourfold, from 0.6% to 2.7%, real wages increased by 3.4 times, and real pensions increased by 2.8 times.

Essays

Emerging Technologies And Their Impact On International Relations And Global Security

by Ivan V. Danilinvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Looking at international relations and security (IR&S) and foreign policy (FP) issues through the eyes of an innovation studies researcher presents a dialectic challenge. On the one hand, it is always restricted by the natural lack of knowledge about IR&S theories and facts; on the other, it may reveal some hidden tendencies on the crossroads between technology and IR&S/FP. In the case of emerging technologies, this problem is further aggravated by the fact that most of them are in the relatively early stage of development.

Essays

New Challenges In Global Politics: A Russian Perspective

by Igor Ivanovvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

The world is going through a very complicated and dangerous period in its development. One does not need to be an expert on global politics or have access to exclusive sources of information to arrive at this obvious conclusion–all you have to do is flick through the latest issue of a newspaper or watch the news on TV.

Essays

Technology and Governance in Russia: Possibilities

by Stephen Kotkinvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Wednesday, October 3, 2018

This paper will ruminate in a highly preliminary way on the possibility of change in Russian governance as a result of disruptions in technology.  No such momentous changes are on the horizon at the moment.  That said, history moves in surprising ways, and unintended consequences are the norm.  Technological disruption, too, usually brings change in unforeseen directions.  Whatever happens, it will not happen the precise way we might anticipate.  

America Can Ride The 21st Century’s Waves Of Change

by George P. Shultzvia The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, June 27, 2018

The world is experiencing change of unprecedented velocity and scope. Governments everywhere must develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world. They should start by studying the forces of technology and demography that are creating it.

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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