Governance In An Emerging New World

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 919

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation
From the Conveners
From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

Essays
Essays

Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Steps For The 21st Century

by Ernest J. Monizvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The dual nature of nuclear fission—both risk and opportunity—was recognized almost immediately after the seminal physics discoveries of the late 1930s and was articulated as a matter of policy in Eisenhower’s consequential Atoms for Peace speech in 1953. The following years and decades saw both the continued build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals, eventually reaching tens of thousands of weapons, and Western assistance to Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, and others in starting nuclear reactor programs, often with the supply of high-enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel. The irony of having U.S.-supplied weapons-useable material in HEU fuel sitting in Tehran even today is not lost on many participants in the non-proliferation dialogue.

About the Program

E.g., 11 / 14 / 2019
E.g., 11 / 14 / 2019
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 919

Emerging Technology and Nuclear Non-Proliferation

From the Conveners

Tuesday, November 5, 2019
article

Essays

by Ernest J. Moniz Tuesday, November 5, 2019
essay
Monday, October 7, 2019

Fall Series, Issue 819

Governing in an Emerging New World

From the Conveners

Monday, October 7, 2019
article

Essays

by Jeb Bush Monday, October 7, 2019
essay
by Amanda Daflos Monday, October 7, 2019
essay
by Karen Tumulty Monday, October 7, 2019
essay
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Spring Series, Issue 719

Stability in an Age of Disruption

From the Conveners

Tuesday, May 14, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

Tuesday, May 14, 2019
article

Essays

by Jack A. Goldstone, Larry Diamond Tuesday, May 14, 2019
essay
by Alice Hill Tuesday, May 14, 2019
essay
by Morris P. Fiorina Tuesday, May 14, 2019
essay
by Charles Hill Tuesday, May 14, 2019
essay
Monday, May 6, 2019

Spring Series, Issue 619

Emerging Technology and the U.S. Economy

From the Conveners

Monday, May 6, 2019
article

Observations From The Roundtable

Tuesday, May 14, 2019
article

Essays

by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, Prasanna Tambe Monday, May 6, 2019
essay
by Dipayan Ghosh Monday, May 6, 2019
essay
by James F. Hollifield Monday, May 6, 2019
essay
by Van Ton-Quinlivan Monday, May 6, 2019
essay

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Essays

Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Steps For The 21st Century

by Ernest J. Monizvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The dual nature of nuclear fission—both risk and opportunity—was recognized almost immediately after the seminal physics discoveries of the late 1930s and was articulated as a matter of policy in Eisenhower’s consequential Atoms for Peace speech in 1953. The following years and decades saw both the continued build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals, eventually reaching tens of thousands of weapons, and Western assistance to Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, and others in starting nuclear reactor programs, often with the supply of high-enriched uranium (HEU) for fuel. The irony of having U.S.-supplied weapons-useable material in HEU fuel sitting in Tehran even today is not lost on many participants in the non-proliferation dialogue.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it. First, there is the changing composition of the world population, which will have a profound impact on societies. Developed countries are experiencing falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. As working-age populations shrink and pensions and care costs for the elderly rise, it becomes harder for governments to afford other productive investments.

From the Conveners

A Letter from the Conveners

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 7, 2019

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Essays

Governance in a World Beyond the News Cycle

by Karen Tumultyvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 7, 2019

The arrival of Donald Trump in Washington has changed many things about the nation’s capital and how it operates. One of the most elemental of those is its metabolism. That became clear to me early one morning just weeks after the 2017 inauguration. It was a few minutes before dawn, and I was getting ready to pour the day’s first cup of coffee when my iPhone started buzzing on my kitchen counter.

Essays

Unlocking the Power of Technology for Better Governance

by Jeb Bushvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 7, 2019

The rapid advances of the digital age have radically transformed our private and work lives by making information more accessible, communication faster, and businesses more competitive. But while our private lives have been so quickly transformed, government has been slow to respond. Embracing the technological advances of the last few decades promises to make government more efficient, transparent, responsive, and effective.

Essays

The Promise of Government

by Amanda Daflosvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Monday, October 7, 2019

In 2019, some wonder if American government has the power to persist in the same ways as we’ve known it, while adapting to the future and delivering on the same values. The headlines focus on budget cuts, failed technology projects, vendors accused of overbilling, and a government left behind in the race toward a digital world. Government is the most powerful and ever-present institution in our lives—influencing the food we eat, the water we drink, the streets we drive on, the homes we live in, the air we breathe. Do the agencies we rely on to perpetuate our lives have the steadfastness to adjust?

Essays

On “Forces of History”: Easy as One-Two- Three? Not Exactly

by Charles Hillvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The tension between the concepts of “civilization” and “the forces of history” can be tracked around the world from deep antiquity until at least the early 20th century. Since then, for many political reasons, neither the idea of civilization or historically transformative forces has been considered worthy of attention or even to possess intellectual legitimacy for serious world leaders. This may now however be changing as, for example, the European Union’s disregard for the continent’s civilization (as in the determination not to refer to Christianity in its draft constitutions) has troubled many.

Essays

The Democratic Distemper

by Morris P. Fiorinavia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

I have been tasked to write on governance in the contemporary era, a time when many knowledgeable commentators believe that democracies across the western world are performing poorly in the face of new challenges arising from demographic and technological change. Commentary on the state of contemporary liberal democracy clearly tends toward the pessimistic: The vague and persistent feeling that democracies have become ungovernable has been growing steadily in western Europe. The case of Britain has become the most dramatic example of this malaise…

Essays

Governance Challenges to Infrastructure and the Built Environment Posed by Climate Change

by Alice Hillvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii sits two miles above sea level and over 2,200 miles from the nearest continent. For decades, scientists in this government laboratory have collected data on the atmosphere. In recent years, the world’s eyes have been fixed on a particular set of numbers coming out of Mauna Loa—readings of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), a key heat-trapping gas associated with climate change. Since the late 19th century, CO2 emissions have grown to unprecedented levels. In 2013, the daily average concentration of CO2 surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time in modern history. Emissions of CO2 continue to rise, reaching the largest amount ever recorded in 2018, according to the International Energy Agency. Greenhouse gas emissions have resulted in an increase of average global surface temperatures of approximately 1°C since the 1880s.

Essays

How Will Demographic Transformations Affect Democracy in the Coming Decades?

by Jack A. Goldstone, Larry Diamondvia Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

In 2007–2009 a major drought—the worst in forty years—struck northern Syria, the country’s agricultural breadbasket and a region that had already been suffering from loss of irrigation subsidies and water shortages. Syria’s young and fast-growing population meant that over a million people in the region were directly affected by the drought. In “the 2007/2008 agriculture season, nearly 75 percent of these households suffered total crop failure.” Hundreds of thousands left their lands and moved to the cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus. Because Syria already was suffering from widespread popular discontent over political exclusion and corruption, these refugees added to the existing weight of urban misery and anger with the regime. Two years later, when a rebellion broke out in southern Syria, revolt quickly spread to these northern cities and precipitated civil war. The war in turn created millions more refugees, who spread to Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, and then to Europe, where a sudden surge of over one million war refugees sought asylum in 2015.

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About the Program

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

For more information on the program, click here.

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