This Friday, dissident researcher Arkar Hein illustrates what ongoing state violence in Myanmar reveals about the human desire for freedom and self-government; Valerie Ramey explains the economics of Valentine’s Day and parenting; and Zohar Palti argues that any truly good deal with the Iranian regime would prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons now and in the future.
Freedom Frequency
The bloodshed in Myanmar has persisted for years, now largely forgotten by an outside world whose attention has drifted to other conflicts. Dissident researcher Arkar Hein writes in Freedom Frequency about how Myanmar’s central government, ruled by a military junta that seized power five years ago and toppled democratic leaders, continues to launch crushing air and artillery attacks on regions it does not control. Meanwhile, in those parts of the country that lack any official government services, people organize themselves to defend their homes; provide clinics, schools, and other services; and work within a form of improvised democracy. In the end, the conflict in Myanmar not only demonstrates people’s determination to govern themselves but also confronts the world with a question: Can those who push for liberty and justice succeed in defeating those who would repress them? Read more here.
Valentine’s Day Economics
Depending on one’s outlook, relationship status, and willingness to spend lavishly on romantic gestures, Valentine's Day is an annual ritual either to be loved or loathed. But across America, is it living up to its unstated end goal: the blossoming of romance into love and commitment, and in turn parenthood? On the latest episode of Matters of Policy & Politics, economist and Senior Fellow Valerie Ramey looks at the economic engine that is Valentine’s Day (literally, “a day of wine and roses”) and the various social factors that have contributed to America’s declining birth rate. The conversation also explores why modern-day parents engage in what Ramey calls the "rug rat race”—raising children in a more hands-on manner to assure they are admitted to top-flight universities. Watch or listen here.
The Middle East
In an essay for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Zohar Palti analyzes what it would take to strike a “good” nuclear deal with Iran under its current regime. “A ‘good deal’ with Iran should not be defined by diplomatic optics or short-term de-escalation; it should be defined by whether it permanently removes the regime’s ability to transition rapidly from civilian nuclear activities to a military nuclear capability,” the former Israeli defense and intelligence official argues. Palti concludes that “an agreement that fails to meet these definitions would risk giving Tehran the time, legitimacy, and technological progression it needs to attain a military nuclear capability down the road.” Read more here.
Military History
In a new essay, Military History in Contemporary Conflict Working Group contributor Zafiris Rossidis analyzes the recruitment and operational use of veterans of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade by the US Office of Strategic Services (OSS) during World War II. Rossidis focuses on the deliberate strategy of OSS director William J. “Wild Bill” Donovan to harness the experience of former volunteers of the Spanish Civil War International Brigades—including the Lincoln Brigade—despite the political stigma of their association with communist networks. Through close examination of individual cases—including Milton Wolff, the battalion’s commander—Rossidis argues that Spanish Civil War veterans played a formative role in 20thcentury unconventional warfare and resistance liaison operations for the US. Read more here.
Technology, Economics, and Governance
Writing at his Substack, Senior Fellow Andrew B. Hall examines what it would take for prediction markets to become reliable indicators of “the trajectory of our messy, contingent world,” writing, “Information helps us make better decisions.” Hall says markets for predictions about the future course of events, from sports to geopolitics, can help organize and clarify available information across a myriad of market participants. But Hall also notes that “political and policy markets—those arguably most core to the social value proposition of prediction markets—are mostly ghost towns today.” He notes the potential of prediction markets to serve as hedges against political risk. As he concludes, “Right now, political prediction markets have almost no hedgers. Changing that could be transformative.” Read more here.
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