Today, Niall Ferguson argues that the capture of Nicolás Maduro fits into a larger pattern of current politics echoing the late Gilded Age; Michael McFaul calls on the Trump administration to prioritize supporting a democratic transition in Venezuela; and H.R. McMaster speaks with CBS News about how Venezuelans in exile are prepared to “reclaim their country” following Maduro’s ouster.
US Foreign Policy in Venezuela
In a column for The Free Press examining the recent US law enforcement action against Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro, Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson suggests we are witnessing a return to “the politics of 1900.” Ferguson points out that Latin American interventions and talk of tariffs, socialism, corruption, and anti-Semitism all carry echoes from more than a hundred years ago. In his column, Ferguson revisits the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy document released in early December, reiterating from his analysis of last month, “The most important line in the NSS is: ‘We will assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine’—an allusion to the Roosevelt Corollary, named after President Theodore Roosevelt’s assertion in 1904 that the United States had a right to intervene in Latin American countries in cases of ‘chronic wrongdoing.’” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Writing today at his Substack, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul argues: “US military intervention in Venezuela a few days ago will have immediate knock-on effects for American national security—both positive and negative. On the positive side, a ruthless dictator is now behind bars.” But in terms of costs, McFaul says, “Trump’s unilateral decision to launch this military attack without approval from any multilateral organization further erodes the already significantly damaged rule-based international system that has served America so well since its creation after World War II.” Examining the challenges ahead for American policy and a democratic transition in Venezuela, McFaul argues, “Trump should focus on democracy now and oil later.” Read more here.
What happens next in Venezuela after the US capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro with President Trump saying he plans to “run” that country? In an appearance on CBS News, Senior Fellow and retired Army Lt. General H.R. McMaster, who served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration, shares his thoughts on that question and more. McMaster emphasizes that Maduro lost and stole the last Venezuelan election, and notes that many Venezuelans who have fled Maduro’s brutal regime are ready to return to their country to participate in a democratic revitalization. “These are really talented and resourceful people, who are ready to go back and reclaim their country,” McMaster says. Watch here.
US-Mexico Relations
As the 2026 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) approaches, uncertainty surrounds the future of North American trade and investment relationships. Nevertheless, senior government officials, leading scholars, and industry executives from the United States and Mexico acknowledge that it is simply not possible, as a practical matter, for the two countries to decouple from one another. That realization shaped discussions at a recent meeting jointly convened by the Hoover Institution and the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) at ITAM’s Mexico City campus. The Hoover delegation, led by Senior Fellow Stephen Haber, offered perspectives on trade, energy, immigration, and security. Participants focused on several challenges that will weigh heavily on the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA, including competition with China and cooperation over energy. Read more here.
The Middle East
In his weekly column for RealClearPolitics, Senior Fellow Peter Berkowitz breaks down the challenge of rebuilding the Gaza strip in the wake of two years of warfare there. Berkowitz sees “little chance that the Trump administration’s ‘Project Sunrise’ will transform Gaza any time soon” because of “Hamas’ deepest political and religious commitments,” which involve the destruction of Israel. Berkowitz cites his colleague Hoover Fellow Cole Bunzel’s recently published book chapter, “What Hamas Really Wants: The Ideology of the Islamic Resistance Movement.” According to Bunzel, “the ‘exceptional cruelty and bloodlust motivated by profound hatred’ that the jihadists exhibited on Oct. 7 reflected ‘violent, annihilationist intentions toward Israel.’” Berkowitz stresses that American, Israeli, and other Middle Eastern policymakers and analysts must not overlook Hamas’ persistent violent motivations as regional diplomacy proceeds. Read more here.
Related Commentary