In Perspective: Decision 2016

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Poll Position: California Versus Trump

interview with Bruce Cain, Bill Whalenvia In Perspective: Decision 2016
Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Politics, Public Policy, and Public Opinion.

In Perspective: Decision 2016 - Poll Position

Poll Position: An Autopsy Of The 2016 Election

by David Brady, Douglas Rivers, Bill Whalenvia In Perspective: Decision 2016
Tuesday, November 22, 2016

The 2016 Presidential Election.

Eleven Nine

by James W. Ceaservia The Weekly Standard
Monday, November 21, 2016

Americans awoke on the morning of 11/9 to a different political world. There is only one word to explain what happened, and it is called democracy.

How Will The Election Affect The Economy?

by John B. Taylor, John H. Cochranevia Stanford News
Thursday, November 10, 2016

Stanford economists John Taylor and John Cochrane offer their thoughts on the state of the U.S. economy and job growth and how it may look under President-Elect Donald Trump.

In Perspective: Decision 2016 - Poll Position

Poll Position: The Aftermath Of The 2016 Elections

by Douglas Rivers, Bill Whalenvia In Perspective: Decision 2016
Thursday, November 10, 2016

With the returns in and the presidency decided, we discuss  why the polls didn’t get it right in 2016. 

The Election Fables Of 2016

by Victor Davis Hansonvia National Review
Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Clear choices on the issues in 2016 have been far more distinct than in 1960, 1968, or 1992.

Painful Choices: Part II

by Thomas Sowellvia Creators Syndicate
Tuesday, November 8, 2016

In most Presidential election years, the most important vote is the vote for President of the United States. This year, the most important vote looks like the vote for control of the Senate. 

Barbara Boxer Is About To Be Replaced In Washington — Will It Matter?

by Bill Whalenvia Los Angeles Times
Monday, November 7, 2016

Here’s one election day storyline that won’t garner the attention it deserves: No matter what else happens Tuesday, for the first time in American history, one elected woman will be tapped to replace another in the U.S. Senate, just the way it’s been happening for men since the Republic began.

Trump, Clinton And The Culture Of Deference

by Shelby Steelevia Wall Street Journal
Monday, November 7, 2016

Political correctness functions like a despotic regime. We resent it but we tolerate it.

Late Polling Shift? What The YouGov Survey Shows

by David Brady, Carl Cannonvia Real Clear Politics
Saturday, November 5, 2016

With the 2016 campaign in its final days, the set of questions being asked by political junkies, party professionals, and ordinary voters are tending to dovetail. Mainly, all of us want to know two things.


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In Perspective: Decision 2016 - Poll Position

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About the Poll

Now that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have all but secured their parties’ nominations, what’s the best way to look at how their matchup is likely to turn out?

Political scientists and economists used economic growth models to predict presidential election results with quite good results until 2012, when they suggested Mitt Romney would win.  Instead, Barack Obama won because Democrats had a 5 to 6 percent advantage in party identification over Republicans.  Mitt Romney did top Obama among true independents, but not by a large enough margin to give him a majority. 

The same kind of calculus is likely to hold in 2016:  for Republicans to win they have to hold their own voters and then get more Democratic voters than they give up, or win a large share of independents.

This page will host monthly updates from the YouGov recontact survey, which will track some 5,000 respondents over time to measure shifts in support.

The purpose of this portal is to host articles and provide links to content written by Hoover fellows that pertain to the prominent ideas of the 2016 presidential election.

Specifically, it will focus on the most recent polling data and the topics that have dominated discussion during this election season. This portal will be a central location for anyone who wants to look into specific policy options, providing Hoover research articles on the issues that matter most.