At present it is extraordinarily difficult to see how any American government—beyond former President Donald J. Trump—would be willing to trust the Russians to the degree necessary to cooperate effectively against the Chinese, at least for the short term. The Russian hacking in American elections is only the most obvious example of the extraordinary actions taken by the Russians against the United States. But the Russians have not just focused their bad behavior against the United States. The attacks on Russian émigrés by radioactive poison and nerve agents on British soil represent irresponsible and hostile actions against the West in general.
Nevertheless, a reconciliation between the Americans and the Russians is not impossible to imagine. In the long term, it is well to remember only fifty years ago the United States found itself engaged in a ferocious struggle against the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, now an important ally in our attempt to hold the Chinese back from South East Asia and its mineral-rich waters. And what is crucial to remember is the fact that the international scene is more uncertain and ambiguous than any time since the early 1930s. Thus, sudden movements in the relationships among the great powers are much more likely. For example, the Entente Cordiale (1904) between Britain and France occurred a mere six years after the Fashoda Incident had threatened to plunge the two nations into war.
The problem, of course, lies in the fact that the great, uninhabited, mineral-rich lands of Siberia beckon to a China that is short of many of the natural resources on which a modern economy thrives. Moreover, the Chinese have not been overly subtle about their ancient claims, not only about the seas lying to their southeast, but to the lands to their north. In fact, if one takes ancient Chinese claims seriously, which apparently they do, they have a better claim to the latter than to the former. Perhaps, one of the most astonishing aspects of Russian strategy over the past decade has been Putin’s dogged pursuit of Chinese friendship, including the sale of modern Russian weaponry, a considerable help in Xi’s effort to overtake American military superiority.
Given the fact that it is inevitable that sometime in the future China will cast its gaze more covetously to the north, the question then becomes: Will the Putin regime have done so much damage to Russian-American relations that U.S. policy makers find it impossible to deal with the Russians until too late? The “too late” issue may revolve around another imponderable, namely the extent of the damage that Putin has and will have done to the Russian state. When he disappears into the trash bin of history, he will leave behind in Russia no certain successor. In the ensuing political crisis, the United States will have to tread carefully, because Putin has created a deep sense of suspicion of America among the Russian leadership. There will certainly be considerable problems among the states in the Caucasus.
The timing of an American-Russian rapprochement would be crucial to be effective. Too late, and we will be picking up the wreckage left by Chinese military and political moves. Done at the right time, an American move to bolster the Russians could deter the Chinese from taking risks that would result in nuclear war.
