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Empirical Questions About the Anticipation Effects of QE2

Saturday, November 6, 2010

No doubt there will be many empirical studies evaluating the impact of the Fed’s November 3 decision to begin another dose of quantitative easing (QE2). Ben Bernanke gave his first assessment of the impact of QE2 in an op-ed yesterday in the Washington Post. He argued that QE2 started working even before the decision on November 3. In particular he wrote that:

Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action.

How can one determine whether stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell in anticipation of QE2?  Obviously it is very difficult because many other things affect stock and bond markets, and one can never know for sure, but the data presented in the following charts raise serious doubts that such anticipation effects were either substantial or sustainable.

Continue reading John Taylor at Economics One