John B. Taylor

George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics
Awards and Honors:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Econometric Society (elected fellow)
Economics Distinguished Faculty Teaching Award
(2015)
Biography: 

John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He chairs the Hoover Working Group on Economic Policy and is director of Stanford’s Introductory Economics Center.

Taylor's fields of expertise are monetary policy, fiscal policy, and international economics. His book Getting Off Track was one of the first on the financial crisis; his latest book, First Principles, for which he received the 2012 Hayek Prize, develops an economic plan to restore America’s prosperity.

Taylor served as senior economist on President Ford's and President Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, as a member of President George H. W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, and as a senior economic adviser to Bob Dole’s presidential campaign, to George W. Bush’s presidential campaign in 2000, and to John McCain’s presidential campaign. He was a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisers from 1995 to 2001. From 2001 to 2005, Taylor served as undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs where he was responsible for currency markets, international development, for oversight of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and for coordinating policy with the G-7 and G-20.

Taylor received the Bradley Prize from the Bradley Foundation and the Adam Smith Award as well as the Adolph G. Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics. He was awarded the Alexander Hamilton Award for his overall leadership at the US Treasury, the Treasury Distinguished Service Award for designing and implementing the currency reforms in Iraq, and the Medal of the Republic of Uruguay for his work in resolving the 2002 financial crisis. At Stanford he was awarded the George P. Shultz Distinguished Public Service Award, as well as the Hoagland Prize and the Rhodes Prize for excellence in undergraduate teaching. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society; he formerly served as vice president of the American Economic Association.

Taylor received the 2016 Adam Smith Award from the Association of Private Enterprise Education and the 2015 Truman Medal for Economic Policy for extraordinary contribution to the formation and conduct of economic policy.

Taylor formerly held positions as professor of economics at Princeton University and Columbia University. Taylor received a BA in economics summa cum laude from Princeton University in 1968 and a PhD in economics from Stanford University in 1973.

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Recent Commentary

Interviews

John Taylor On "Rules-Based Fed Policy"

interview with John B. Taylorvia CNBC
Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses the importance of an independent, accountable central bank.

Analysis and Commentary

Choice Of IMF Managing Director Should Reflect 75 Years Of Change

by John B. Taylor mentioning Raghuram Rajanvia Economics One
Sunday, August 18, 2019

Last week Raghu Rajan and I coauthored an article for the Financial Times. We argued that the IMF should no longer continue the tradition that the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund be a European. Instead, it should “break the mould by appointing the best possible candidate to the job, regardless of nationality,” and “hold an open competition” for the position.

Featured

The New IMF Head Should Not Be Dictated By The Tired, Old, EU Order

by John B. Taylor, Raghuram Rajanvia Financial Times
Sunday, August 11, 2019

[Subscription Required] It is not easy to predict where financial stresses that require alleviation by the IMF will emerge next, or what form the mitigation strategies will take. Almost certainly, though, after a period of extremely easy liquidity and associated leveraging in financial markets, the call on IMF advice and resources will be greater than in the past. Its support will have to take new forms. It will also have to sell economic-policy packages to a governing body from an increasingly multipolar world.

Featured

A Beautiful Model Now Questioned

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

A few days ago, an amazing thing happened when Thomas Brand (@thlbr) tweeted about a short article I posted on my blog EconomicsOne.com. My post was old–posted 10 years ago on October 3, 2009–and I titled it “A Beautiful Model, A Clear Prediction.”

Featured

Central Bank Independence Is Not Enough

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Four former chairs of the Fed  wrote in the Wall Street Journal today about the importance of Fed independence. I agree, but their article should have emphasized that independence is not enough.  Economic performance has been affected by large shifts between more rules-based and less rules-based policy by the Fed without any concomitant change in the legal basis for independence. De jure independence has not prevented the Fed from harmful departures from rules-based policies.

Analysis and Commentary

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away From The Lower Bound?

by Lilia Maliar, John B. Taylorvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

During the recent economic crisis, when nominal interest rates were at their effective lower bounds, central banks used forward guidance announcements about future policy rates to conduct their monetary policy. Many policymakers believe that forward guidance will remain in use after the end of the crisis; however, there is uncertainty about its effectiveness. 

Featured

Africa Meeting Of Econometricians: History, Revival And Ways Forward

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Friday, July 12, 2019

I just spent a wonderful few days at the 2019 Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society held in Rabat, Morocco with the central bank, the Bank Al-Maghrib, providing an excellent venue. Congratulations to the Bank Al Maghrib for its 60th anniversary year and also to the Econometric Society for its upcoming 90th anniversary in 2020.

In the News

The Federal Reserve Makes A Case For Lowering Rates Back To Zero

quoting John B. Taylorvia Barron's
Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Federal Reserve began raising the level of short-term interest rates at the end of 2015. The central bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report, published on Friday in advance of Chairman Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony to Congress this week, suggests this may have been a mistake. According to the report, the proper level of short-term interest rates today could be as low as 0%.

Featured

A Decade Of July 4th Debt Explosions: Are They Getting Less Spectacular?

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Thursday, July 4, 2019

Starting a decade ago, I’ve charted on Independence Day the most recent long-term projection of the federal debt by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Lessons From The Hoover Policy Boot CampFeatured

Understanding Monetary Policy With John B. Taylor

by John B. Taylorvia PolicyEd
Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Monetary policy plays a critical role in the economy. Central banks use monetary policy to promote robust economic growth and to stabilize the economy when growth is uneven. The independence of central banks allows them to make difficult decisions in the face of political pressure. Understanding monetary policy can help us avoid future recessions or financial crises.

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