This work evaluates the potential of various cooperative activities to serve US interests in securing the former Soviet states of Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian countries. Utilizing knowledge obtained through dozens of interviews with experts on Eurasian security, the authors assert that bilateral cooperation between each country and the United States would most effectively support resiliency and prevent the growing regional influence of Russia and China.
Key takeaways
- It is in the US interest that former Soviet states in the South Caucasus, Moldova, and Central Asia have agency and independence, that they are able to resist coercion by Russia and China, and that they have the freedom to choose to enter into economic and political relationships with the United States, NATO, or the European Union.
- Although NATO, the EU, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe are all active in this region pursuing security and economic partnerships, it is not clear what more these institutions can do to enhance security, nor is it clear that these countries would be open to closer cooperation with NATO and the EU as they balance their relationships with Russia, China, and the West.
- Strengthened bilateral security cooperation between the United States and these countries could follow the path of the bilateral agreements that France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, and others have recently concluded with Ukraine, which include provisions to help Ukraine defend itself—but not an Article 5–like commitment to come to the defense of Ukraine.
- A productive approach to pursuing US interests in this region would be to pursue increased bilateral defense cooperation with the United States tailored to the needs of each country, including equipment, financing—including from other Western partners—training, exercises, and intelligence.
- In weighing of costs and benefits of tailored bilateral defense cooperation, the costs could be low and the benefits could include trade and investment opportunities, access to energy and critical materials resources, sales of military equipment, cooperation on counterterrorism, and increased US presence and influence in a region traditionally dominated by Russia and receiving growing attention from China.
A Neighborhood Between Civilizations by Hoover Institution
Cite This Essay:
James Timbie and Adm. James O. Ellis Jr., “A Neighborhood Between Civilizations,” Global Policy and Strategy Initiative, Hoover Institution, April 2025.
