House Democrats’ practical transition to minority status precedes the formal transfer of power on January 5th.  Speaker Pelosi has one big decision to make before she becomes Minority Leader:  Will she bring up a Senate-passed tax bill for an up-or-down House vote?

Procedural summary

On Thursday the tax deal was released in legislative form, surprisingly labeled the Reid/McConnell amendment.  You don’t see that every day on a big economic issue.  Senate Republican Whip Kyl supports it, and in the Senate we therefore have an Obama-Reid-McConnell-Kyl alliance.  That’s unbeatable and will clearly get the 60 votes needed for cloture next Monday at 3 PM EST.

• Bill text
• Joint Tax Committee score.  (Note that this excludes the unemployment insurance, which should have a roughly $56 billion cost.)
• Staff summaries:  Democratic staff (Senate Finance?), Republican Camp-Grassley memo

Assuming the Senate invokes cloture Monday afternoon, I would expect the bill to pass no later than Tuesday.  It then crosses the rotunda to the House, where Speaker Pelosi has a decision to make.  She has unilateral authority to decide which bills come to the floor of the House.

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