Russian-American relations are as poor today as at any time since the fall of the Soviet Union. Mired in prolonged conflicts over Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, election interference, and energy, among other issues, Russia and the United States clash in their interests and their worldviews. Mutual distrust is intense, much more intense than one might infer from the occasional statements of former president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin.
An improvement in relations seems highly unlikely so long as Putin remains in power. Putin has shown, under successive American administrations, that disrupting the international order and diminishing the influence of the United States rank higher on his priority list than the health of Russian-American relations. Convinced that Russia is morally superior to a decadent West, he aspires to restore Russian to its rightful place of influence in Europe. There is little to suggest that Putin’s outlook will change, or that he will depart from the scene.
The United States and Russia can and do cooperate when their interests overlap, such as in counterterrorism and counterproliferation. Cooperation in these areas, however, generally causes little harm to China. In areas of greater salience to American competition with China, Russia and China often have more in common with one another than either has with the United States. Areas of common Sino-Russian interests include the support of authoritarian governments, the development of technologies that are competitive with those of the United States, the reduction of American influence, and the subversion of international organizations.
Opportunities to exploit conflicts between China and Russia are further limited by the low priority of East Asia in Putin’s thinking. Putin has generally been content to circumscribe Russian activities in the Far East in ways that minimize conflict with China. A few significant points of friction persist, such as Russia’s sale of arms to India and the migration of ethnic Chinese into Russia. The concern aroused in China by Russian collaboration with India is one area where the United States, by virtue of its good relationship with India, may be able to stoke Sino-Russian tensions.
Sowing division between China and Russia appears to be the best available means of using the Russian-American relationship against China. American diplomatic flirtations with Russia can foster distrust with China, and vice-versa. Richard Nixon made excellent use of this approach in the late 1960s and early 1970s as he played China and the Soviet Union off against one another. Other possible avenues for creating discord include public diplomacy and messaging that highlight points of friction between the two, such as Chinese theft of Russian intellectual property or Russian arms sales to China’s adversaries.
Another, more positive option for the United States to use Russian-American relations against China would be the development of religious and cultural ties between the United States and Russia, which would highlight commonalities that set the two countries apart from China. The revival of Christianity in Russia has opened many doors for exchanges and conferences between the Russian Orthodox Church and American religious groups. Such “people-to-people” diplomacy could also feed Chinese distrust of the Russian Orthodox Church, which is closely tied to the Russian state.
