As Egypt‘s much-anticipated moment of crisis arrived and popular rebellions shook governments across the Middle East, Iran has stood as never before at the center of the region. Its Islamist rulers are within sight of dominating the region. But revolutions are hard to pull off, and I predict that Islamists will not achieve a Middle East-wide breakthrough and Tehran will not emerge as the key power broker. Here are some thoughts behind this conclusion:
An echo of the Iranian Revolution:On reaching power in 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini sought to spread Islamist insurrection to other countries but failed almost everywhere. Three decades had to go by, it appears, before the self-immolation of a vendor in an obscure Tunisian town could light the conflagration to which Khomeini had aspired and that Iranian authorities still seek.