Iraqi politician Muqtada al-Sadr’s prominence will soon take shape following cabinet formations. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed Shia militia groups continue to challenge remaining US forces in Iraq. Since the targeted killing of Iranian Quds force commander Qassim Soleimani, these militia groups have evolved. Rising independence from Iranian control and competition among themselves are unintended consequences. US-Iran competition in Iraq is now more complex given Sadr’s unpredictability and an uncertain Iraqi future.