This Friday, Steven Koonin argues that familiar apocalyptic climate narratives have misled the public on both scientific realities and economic imperatives; David Brady speaks with Bill Whalen about the relative instability of US politics since the end of the Cold War; and John Cochrane cautions against viewing the US economy of the 1950s—or any other historical time period—with an emphasis on nostalgia over economic data.
Freedom Frequency
Writing at Freedom Frequency, Senior Fellow Steven E. Koonin examines the emergence of realism in climate policymaking, grounded in “a more sober understanding of what is possible—or even what is desirable.” Removing atmospheric carbon is decreasingly seen as a life-or-death crusade, he writes, and increasingly as an issue whose mischaracterization has led to wasted money and effort, and to suppression and distortion of scientific debate. Governments are scaling back carbon commitments in the face of economic and political strain—and amid the widespread failure of mitigation projects, Koonin says. The new realism is based on both a better understanding of the problems of energy transition and a turning away from the worst-case interpretations long foisted on the public. Overall, Koonin argues, this trend amounts to a renunciation of the bleak future imagined by the activists of two decades ago. Read more here.
Politics, Institutions, and Public Opinion
How did America go from relative political stability in the postwar era—one party controlling Congress for the better part of four decades leading up to 1994—to the past three decades of revolving-door majorities on Capitol Hill and increasing partisan bitterness in our political discourse? Senior Fellow Emeritus David Brady, a renowned political scientist, joins Matters of Policy & Politics to explain this transformation, drawing on the arguments in his latest book (with Brett Parker), From Dominance to Parity: America’s Political Parties and the New Era of Electoral Instability. Among the topics discussed: how the Franklin D. Roosevelt and Reagan landslides scrambled America’s voting blocs and why the 2008 Obama landslide wasn’t as transformational; the many dimensions of partisan shift (including gender, age, income, and education); the possibility that old-school moderate Democrats and Republicans will repopulate the political landscape; and the likelihood that hyperpartisanship will continue to dominate future elections. Watch or listen here.
Economic History
“When was the best year for the US economy?” Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane poses the question at the beginning of a new article for the Coolidge Review. “Many people say it must fall sometime in the 1950s,” Cochrane notes, “when, as the fable goes, the economy was growing robustly, manufacturing was strong, [and] there were good union jobs for not very skilled people.” But in reality, the economist says, inflation-adjusted standard of living metrics “show that the average American is about 3.7 times better off today than in 1955. It’s not even close.” Cochrane acknowledges that slower economic growth relative to the 1950s “is a major economic problem today” but notes that we “eat levels, not growth rates.” In other words, America’s economic prosperity in absolute terms is significantly higher today, even as growth advances more slowly. Cochrane concludes that the present, despite its flaws, actually represents the high point of the US economy. Read more here.
The Middle East
As Syrian government forces advance into territory recently held by the now retreating Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Zohar Palti, a former senior Israeli intelligence official, along with other regional experts, provides timely analysis at the Washington Institute website. “The Trump administration has unequivocally backed [Syrian President] Sharaa,” Palti writes, “and Jerusalem must be mindful of this stance,” despite the Israeli government’s “skepticism” toward “the new government’s capabilities and intentions.” While the Kurds have been reliable allies in the US-led campaign against ISIS for over a decade, Palti argues, the Sharaa government failed to prevent “attacks on the Druze population.” Should current US policy backing Sharaa persist, Palti sees Israel “raising serious questions about regional stability, deterrence, and the future credibility of US-aligned actors in Syria.” Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
A recent Economic Policy Working Group seminar examined the potential consequences of the US dollar losing its reserve currency status as a consequence of the Trump administration’s “re-engineering the financial and trade linkages that connect the US with the rest of the world.” The dollar depreciated in April 2025 while domestic interest rates rose relative to the euro; the VIX increased; and the convenience yield on 1-year Treasury bonds fell relative to foreign-currency safe assets. Stanford finance professor Arvind Krishnamurthy argues that these patterns represent a marked departure from historical correlations. Notably, the decline in the dollar convenience yield predates the April 2025 “Liberation Day” shock by two years. Krishnamurthy’s theoretical analysis shows that these movements are consistent with shifts in global demand for US dollar-denominated safe assets and the perception that the US may lose its reserve currency status. Watch or read more here.
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