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Mr. Blair Places His Bet

by Gerald A. Dorfmanvia Hoover Digest
Thursday, January 30, 2003

In supporting President Bush’s tough stance against Saddam Hussein, Prime Minister Blair is putting his political capital at risk. Will the gamble pay off? By Hoover fellow Gerald A. Dorfman.

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Democracies and Their Spies

by Bruce Berkowitzvia Hoover Digest
Thursday, January 30, 2003

Are secrecy and democracy inherently incompatible? Not necessarily. By Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

Military Affairs

The PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls the Gun?

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Thursday, January 30, 2003

For Western observers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the 16th Party Congress presented a curious mixture of the past, the present, and the future. Jiang Zemin's long-rumored and ultimately successful bid to retain the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission (CMC) brought back memories of party-army relations in the late 1980s before Tiananmen. At the same time, the new crop of PLA leaders elevated to the CMC represents the present and future PLA, possessing high levels of experience, training, and education, and thus professionalism. This article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit, analyzes the retirements of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their replacements, and offers some predictions about the choice of defense minister and the future course of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-PLA relations.

What Price Security?

by Timothy Garton Ashvia Hoover Digest
Thursday, January 30, 2003

Would you rather take the slim chance of being blown up by a terrorist or have all your e-mail read by the government? Hoover fellow Timothy Garton Ash on the costs of protecting ourselves.

LEADERSHIP IN WARTIME: Civilian Leaders in Time of War

with Eliot Cohen, David M. Kennedyvia Uncommon Knowledge
Thursday, January 16, 2003

In the modern democratic era, it's not uncommon for elected leaders to have little or no military training or experience. It has become an accepted notion that political leaders should therefore leave battle plans and campaign decisions to the military commanders and avoid "micromanaging" war. But is that notion correct? Or was Clemenceau right when he said that "war is too important to be left to the generals"? What lessons can we learn from studying the greatest wartime leaders, such as Lincoln, Churchill, and FDR?

Analysis and Commentary

Iraq: The Critics, Then and Now

by Robert Zelnickvia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, November 4, 2002

That the critics were wrong a decade ago does not automatically make them wrong today. But their arguments are hauntingly similar.

After Saddam, What?

by Michael McFaulvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

The United States needs to fight a broad war on terror—not simply a war on Saddam Hussein. By Hoover fellow Michael McFaul.

Foreign Policy

A Smooth Ride Despite Many Potholes: The Road to Crawford

by Thomas Christensenvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

The last several months since Hu Jintao's visit to Washington have been very good ones in Sino-American relations. This is true not because the relationship was without sources of friction, but precisely because there were so many such sources, yet they produced little heat. One might draw the conclusion that this state of affairs means a permanent maturing of Sino-American relations. Unfortunately, one would have to base this assessment on scant and perhaps mercurial evidence, since there are so many domestic and international reasons for Beijing and Washington to cooperate in the near term. That word of caution having been voiced, the Bush administration and Jiang Zemin's government have chosen to build on areas of common interest and to minimize areas of conflict without backing away from core elements of their security policies and without ignoring the large differences that they still have over arms proliferation, relations across the Taiwan Strait, and the U.S. approach to the war on terrorism.

Down in Flames

via Hoover Digest
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

How Japanese naval air power went down to defeat. A study of the Second World War by Hoover fellow Mark R. Peattie.

Political Reform

The 16th Party Congress: A Preview

by Joseph Fewsmithvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, October 30, 2002

The 16th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene November 8, 2002. It and the First Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee that will immediately follow the congress will overhaul China's top leadership, including the Central Committee, the Politburo, the Politburo Standing Committee, the secretariat, and the CCP's Central Military Commission. The congress will also revise the CCP's party charter—to what extent and in what way will be watched closely—and issue a political report, which will review the party's achievements and amend its ideology. Although much anticipated, this party congress is unlikely to provide a sharp turning point in party policy. The influence of Jiang Zemin and/or his close supporters will persist. The political transition many are hoping for is likely to be drawn out, perhaps extending to the 17th Party Congress in 2007.


National Security & Law Task Force

The National Security and Law Task Force examines the rule of law, the laws of war, and US constitutional law to make proposals that strike an optimal balance between individual freedom and the vigorous defense of the nation against terrorists both abroad and at home.