Niall Ferguson, Columnist

The Dollar’s Demise May Come Gradually, But Not Suddenly

Rumors of the death of the US currency are as exaggerated as they are frequently repeated.

Founding fathers.

Photographer: Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images

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“Every night,” the president mused, “I ask myself why every country needs to trade in the dollar. … Who decided it was the dollar after the disappearance of the gold standard? … Today, countries have to chase after dollars to export, when they could be exporting in their own currencies.”

The president in question was Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and the venue was the New Development Bank in Shanghai on April 13. There was a great deal of interest in this latest news about Lula when I visited Sao Paulo last week. To me, however, the striking thing was how un-new it was. Lula’s words immediately brought to my mind the musings of another president more than half a century ago: