Monetary Policy


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Is Economic Winter Coming?

by Raghuram Rajanvia Project Syndicate
Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Now that the old rules governing macroeconomic cycles no longer seem to apply, it remains to be seen what might cause the next recession in the United States. But if recent history is our guide, the biggest threat stems not from the US Federal Reserve or any one sector of the economy, but rather from the White House.

Policy Seminar with Anil Kashyap

Wednesday, November 6, 2019
Annenberg Conference Room, Lou Henry Hoover Building

Ramin Toloui, Professor of the Practice of International Finance and the Tad and Dianne Taube Policy Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), and former Assistant Secretary for International Finance at the U.S. Treasury Department, discussed “How Did QE Really Work? A New Approach to Measuring the Federal Reserve’s Impact on Financial Markets during 2010-2018.”

Analysis and Commentary

New Evidence Points To Mounting Trade Policy Effects On U.S. Business Activity

by David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nick Parkervia The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Friday, November 1, 2019

Trade worries remain at the forefront of economic news. Average tariffs on Chinese imports now stand at 21 percent, up from 3 percent in March 2018. Earlier this month, President Trump suspended plans for further tariff hikes on Chinese goods. Also this month, the U.S. is rolling out new tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of imports from Europe. On another front, fears are growing that Congress may not approve the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, the intended successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement. 


The Fed Needs Trust, Not Tactics

by Kevin Warshvia The Wall Street Journal
Monday, October 28, 2019

Interest-rate cuts won’t hold off the next downturn. The central bank must assure markets with a plan.


Electing America’s Economic Future

by Michael J. Boskinvia Project Syndicate
Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Next year's US presidential election will have far-reaching consequences, not least for the economy. Given the stakes of the outcome, rigorous analysis of the candidates' sharply diverging – and often risky – policy platforms is urgently needed.


Darrell Duffie: U.S. Banking Sector: Better Than Before

interview with Darrell Duffievia Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Friday, October 4, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow Darrell Duffie examines “bail-in” regulations and the risk of another financial collapse.

In the News

Monetary Policy In The 21st Century: An Allan Meltzer Perspective

mentioning John B. Taylorvia AEI
Thursday, October 10, 2019

The world’s central banks face unprecedented challenges in the 21st century. With balances sheets expanded by more than US$10 trillion and seemingly stuck in a low interest rate quagmire, central banks are increasingly strained in dealing with low inflation and economic uncertainty. This event will discuss what Allan Meltzer, the late renowned monetary theorist and historian, might have made of current monetary policy developments.

In the News

Do Cash Transfers Work?

cited Elena Pastorinovia Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Nations around the world have addressed problems of poverty—malnutrition, poor health care, inadequate education—with “conditional cash transfer” programs (CCTs). These programs provide small cash stipends to participants who engage in specified behaviors—like buying healthy foods, attending maternal health clinics, or sending children to school. They’ve been widely adopted, from Brazil to Indonesia. Even New York City has a CCT.

Blueprint for AmericaFeatured

Blueprint For America: The Art And Practice Of Governance

by George P. Shultzvia PolicyEd
Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Managing governmental spending, guiding private enterprise, maintaining global alliances, and educating the next generation are America’s top priorities that have not changed over time. However, good governance is needed to sustain and realize these long-term goals.

In the News

The Repo Problem Is Deeper Than The Fed Admits

quoting John H. Cochranevia Seeking Alpha
Monday, September 23, 2019

There they go again! Offering a put for mismatched dealers that will continue to promote borrowing short to carry long securities. See here. For an update, see here. Borrowing short to lend long is what tanked the financial system in 2007-2008, as well as just about every other financial crisis described in This Time Is Different.


Economic Policy Working Group

The Working Group on Economic Policy brings together experts on economic and financial policy to study key developments in the U.S. and global economies, examine their interactions, and develop specific policy proposals.

Milton and Rose Friedman: An Uncommon Couple