Hoover Institution fellow David Brady looks at data and what it means for the election. Brady looks at party identification and how members of the different will vote at this time. Brady uses the YouGov poll. In short, for Republicans to win—then and now—they have to hold their own voters and then get more Democratic voters than they give up or win Independents. In this space we will give you our monthly updates from the YouGov recontact survey, same 5,000 respondents each month so we can track change over time.