Analysis of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party shows that over the past two decades three simple rules have been followed.  These rules offer a means to project appointments to the Standing Committee at the upcoming 19th Party Congress in 2017.  Whether in fact the Xi leadership follows the precedents set down in past appointments or instead sets them aside offers a key benchmark against which to assess Xi Jinping’s strength as party leader.

Projecting the Next Politburo Standing Committee

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