Li-Meng Yan, MD and others have claimed that China manufactured the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a lab and that it suppressed information about the danger of human-to-human transmission. China’s militarily controlled Wuhan Institute is said now to have the ability to manufacture additional pandemic viruses as well. These claims have been widely disputed, but if they hold up, they will increase opposition to China, even if the waters are muddied by support for China’s virus research by the U.S. National Institutes of Health. That doesn’t mean, however, that the consequences for China would be severe.
I wish I could say that I thought the world would rise up in righteous anger at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s misbehavior, but I am skeptical. People do business with China because they want to make money. However guilty China might be for the virus, many if not most people would write it off as the cost of doing business. That is especially the case because the virus targets only a small segment of society, the elderly and those with certain pre-existing conditions. People can see through China’s brazen denials to date of any wrongdoing, but they are willing to live with what we now know, and they would probably be willing to live with worse.
China faces serious opposition abroad, but much less because of the virus than because of increased Chinese aggression. The CCP has moved insistently on several fronts in recent years, with activity stepped up in 2020. In addition to its longstanding effort to build island naval bases in the South China Sea, China has this year cracked down on Hong Kong, where it has rescinded freedoms guaranteed in its treaty with the UK. It has also initiated a five-month-long struggle with India over a disputed border region in Ladakh, which is part of Kashmir. At home, there has been the continuing brutal repression of Uighurs, while abroad, Chinese hardline “wolf warrior” diplomacy has also stirred up opposition. As a result, Pacific nations have “bandwagoned,” against a rising threat. They include Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. These countries share intelligence and collaborate on defense plans. Ever since China’s border clashes with India this year, India has upped its interest in purchasing weapons from the U.S. India has also retaliated economically against China by banning the popular Chinese app TikTok from use in India.
If the world does come to the conclusion that China was criminally lax or worse, then the informal coalition to stop China that has emerged in the Asia-Pacific region might increase ties of cooperation and harden its resolve. The EU might also harden its position. Europe has taken a softer line toward China than has either India or the U.S., which reflects both Chinese influence in certain EU countries but also a general European interest in trade with China and in balancing the power of the United States. Still, EU businessmen and politicians have expressed increasing distrust of Chinese investments in Europe as well as growing concern about human rights issues. Chinese “mask diplomacy” and disinformation have stirred up opposition in Europe as well. If real Chinese malfeasance in regard to the coronavirus is demonstrated, and if that information becomes public, then it might push Europeans further against China, especially if there is fear of China unleashing additional pandemics.
Then again, if Chinese diplomatic and information operations manage to muddy the waters, if a vaccine is available soon or if herd immunity kicks in rapidly, if China relaxes its aggression on its borders, and if no new pandemic appears, then the world might witness a very different reaction. Cynical businessmen, politicians, and publics as a whole, might decide that SARS-CoV-2 was the price of doing business, shrug its soldiers, and move on. This might particularly be the case when there is a change of administration in the United States.
