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A Helsinki Conference for Asia

by Philip Bobbittvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, April 26, 2018

This paper proposes a comprehensive set of agreements to resolve the current crisis over North Korean nuclear capabilities. This settlement envisages a peace conference that would end the Korean War, recognize current borders as inviolate, and accord current regimes international recognition by all parties. This agreement depends upon China offering North Korea a guarantee of extended deterrence against the United States or its allies in exchange for North Korean denuclearization under stringent UN inspections.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Encryption Policy And Its International Impacts: A Framework For Understanding Extraterritorial Ripple Effects

by Ryan Budish, Herbert Burkert , Urs Gasser via Aegis Paper Series
Friday, March 2, 2018

This paper explores the potential international ripple effects that can occur following changes to domestic encryption policies.  Whether these changes take the form of a single coherent national policy or a collection of independent (or even conflicting) policies, the impacts can be unexpected and wide-ranging.  This paper offers a conceptual model for how the ripple effects from national encryption policies might propagate beyond national borders. And we provide a set of factors that can help policy-makers anticipate some of the most likely ripple effects of proposed encryption policies.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

The ‘China, Inc.+’ Challenge To Cyberspace Norms

by Robert D. Williamsvia Aegis Paper Series
Wednesday, February 21, 2018

This paper explores two aspects of China’s governance model that pose distinctive challenges to the construction of international cyberspace norms: the embedded and intertwined nature of the Communist Party-state in China’s economy and the expansive conception of national security reflected in Chinese laws and policies. Viewed in conjunction with Chinese cyberspace strategy and activity, these characteristics of “China, Inc. +” raise vexing questions with considerable implications for US-China relations.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Small Towns, Big Companies: How Surveillance Intermediaries Affect Small And Midsize Law Enforcement Agencies

by Anne Bousteadvia Aegis Paper Series
Wednesday, February 7, 2018

This paper explores how efforts by companies to resist government requests for consumer information may disproportionately affect small and mid-sized law enforcement agencies, as small departments face obstacles to using commercially collected information that do not occur in the context of larger departments. Differences between law enforcement agencies that serve large communities and those that serve small communities suggest corresponding differences in their ability to adapt to changes in the process for obtaining data from digital communication companies.  Failing to account for these differences may encourage policies that will only work as expected for large law enforcement agencies.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

A Rubicon

by Daniel E. Geer, Jr.via Aegis Paper Series
Friday, February 2, 2018

Optimality and efficiency work counter to robustness and resilience. Complexity hides interdependence, and interdependence is the source of black swan events.  The benefits of digitalization are not
transitive, but the risks are.  Because single points of failure
require militarization wherever they underlie gross societal
dependencies, frank minimization of the number of such single points
of failure is a national security obligation.  Because cascade
failure ignited by random faults is quenched by redundancy, whereas
cascade failure ignited by sentient opponents is exacerbated by
redundancy, (preservation of) uncorrelated operational mechanisms
is likewise a national security obligation.

Blank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

A Migration System In The Making: Demographic Dynamics And Migration Policies In North America And The Northern Triangle Of Central America

via Analysis
Wednesday, October 11, 2017

In recent years, the three countries in North America (Canada, the United States and Mexico) and the three in the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA: Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) have experienced large human mobility within the region. Traditionally dominated by South-North migration, with the US and Canada as the main destinations, this migration system is now more complex as it includes new flows, places of origin, and destinations. This study analyzes socioeconomic and demographic dynamics in the sending and receiving countries alongside the migration policies in the three main destinations to help understand (a) to what extent flows between and within North America and the NTCA may continue in the short term and (b) what changes in migrants profiles can be expected in the future.

EssaysBlank Section (Placeholder)Analysis and Commentary

Syria-Iraq: Limiting Iranian Influence Implies Returning To Realpolitik

by Fabrice Balanchevia Hoover Institution Press
Thursday, October 5, 2017

Destroying the Islamic State (IS) and limiting the influence of Iran is a difficult project. The United States has more capabilities in Syria than in Iraq to destroy IS and limit Iran. The Sunni Arab tribes of the Euphrates Valley no longer support the Islamic State and are ready to join those who will liberate them, which explains the effectiveness of the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish-Arab) against IS. Thus the liberation of Raqqa could thus take place in fall 2017, provided Turkey does not launch an offensive against the Syrian Kurds.

Blank Section (Placeholder)EssaysAnalysis and Commentary

Nobody But Us

by Ben Buchananvia Aegis Paper Series
Wednesday, August 30, 2017

This paper examines how the NOBUS approach works, its limits, and the challenging matter of what comes next. Traditionally, signals intelligence is neatly bifurcated into offense and defense: intercept adversaries’ communication technology and protect one’s own. In the modern era, however, there is great convergence in the technologies used by friendly nations and by hostile ones. Signals intelligence agencies find themselves penetrating the technologies they also at times must protect. To ease this tension, the United States and its partners have relied on an approach sometimes called Nobody But Us, or NOBUS: target communications mechanisms using unique methods accessible only to the United States.

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How China’s Views on the Law of Jus ad Bellum Will Shape Its Legal Approach to Cyberwarfare

by Julian G. Kuvia Aegis Paper Series
Thursday, August 17, 2017

This paper concludes that the Chinese government has adopted a strict positivist reading of the UN Charter’s limitations on the use of force that brooks no exceptions for humanitarian interventions and with a narrowly construed exception for self defense. Since China has not shown any willingness to abandon this legal approach to the law of jus ad bellum codified in the Charter, it is unlikely that China will embrace the US legal approach to cyberwarfare. Rather, China will probably use its restrictive reading of the UN Charter to garner political support among other countries to criticize and deter offensive US cyberwarfare.  This sharp divide between the US and Chinese legal positions calls into question the efficacy of longstanding US government efforts to convince China to accept and apply international law to cyberwarfare.  

Fiscal policies and the prices of labor: a comparison of the U.K. and U.S.

by Casey B. Mulliganvia Springer Open
Friday, August 11, 2017

This paper measures the 2007–13 evolution of employment tax rates in the U.K. and the U.S. The U.S. changes are greater, in the direction of taxing a greater fraction of the value created by employment, and primarily achieved with new implicit tax rates. Even though both countries implemented a temporary “fiscal stimulus,” their tax rate dynamics were different: the U.S. stimulus increased rates, whereas the U.K. stimulus reduced them. The U.K. later increased the tax on employment during its “austerity” period. Tax rate measurements are a first ingredient for cross-country comparisons of labor markets during and after the financial crisis.

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