PARTICIPANTS
Valerie Ramey, John Taylor, Mohamad Adhami, Annelise Anderson, Hoyt Bleakley, Michael Bordo, David Brady, Pedro Carvalho, Steven Davis, Abhi Desai, David Figlio, Rick Geddes, Oliver Giesecke, Tyler Goodspeed, Bob Hall, Rick Hanushek, Jon Hartley, Greg Hess, Robert Hodrick, Laurie Hodrick, Nicholas Hope, Bobby Inman, Suhani Jalota, Ken Judd, Evan Koenig, Roman Kraussl, Jeff Lacker, Alla Laguduava, Nelson Layfield, David Laidler, Andrew Levin, Ross Levine, John Li, Jacob Light, Lilia Maliar, David Neumark, Stephen Redding, JR Scott, Krishna Sharma, Richard Sousa, Tom Stephenson, Jack Tatom, Mark Tendall, Marc Weidenmeier, Simon Weiderhold, Oliver Xie, Alexander Zentefis
ISSUES DISCUSSED
Valerie Ramey, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, discussed “Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies.”
John Taylor, the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, was the moderator.
SUMMARY
This paper re-evaluates the effectiveness of temporary transfers in stimulating the macroeconomy using evidence from four case studies. The rebirth of Keynesian stabilization policy has lingering costs in terms of higher debt paths, so it is important to assess the benefits of these policies. In each case study, I analyze whether the behavior of the aggregate data is consistent with the transfers providing an effective stimulus. Two of the case studies are reviews of evidence from my recent work on the 2001 and 2008 U.S. tax rebates. The other two case studies are new analyses of temporary transfers in Singapore and Australia. In all four instances, the evidence suggests that temporary cash transfers to households likely provided little or no stimulus to the macroeconomy.
To read the slides, click here
To read the paper, click here
WATCH THE SEMINAR
Topic: Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies
Start Time: April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM PT
