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- Revitalizing History
The world is experiencing a profound demographic shift: a "senior bulge" where those aged 65+ outnumber younger cohorts for the first time in history. This trend, driven by longer life expectancy and lower fertility, poses economic, political, and social challenges to all societies. The following report explores the senior bulge’s historical context and outlines several policy options for governments to adopt and proactively manage the complex realities of aging populations.
Key Takeaways
- For the first time in history, people ages 65+ outnumber young children, signaling a fundamental reversal from the prior "youth bulge" to a global "senior bulge."
- Driven by a combination of increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates, aging populations are challenging welfare states, shrinking workforces, increasing healthcare costs, and destabilizing pension systems originally designed for shorter retirements.
- As migration—especially of skilled workers—can offset demographic decline, the United States and other developed nations are encouraged to expand legal migration pathways.
- While robotics may assist elder care, cultural resistance and costs hinder widespread adoption; meanwhile, in-person labor remains essential, even with remote work growth.
- When addressing how to mitigate against the costs of the “senior bulge” through policy, reacting to each trend in isolation is inefficient. Systems thinking emphasis on examining the interactions of individual elements offers a better approach by focusing on how such trends interact to shape future political, cultural, economic, and military outcomes.
The Senior Bulge: Anticipating and Addressing the Aging Boom by Hoover Institution
Cite this report:
Jonathan Cosgrove, Divya Ganesan, Daniel Longo, and Katharine Sorensen, “The Senior Bulge: Anticipating and Addressing the Aging Boom,” Hoover Institution, Hoover History Lab, September 2025.
