Today, Steven J. Davis speaks with Harvard economist Claudia Goldin about her recent paper examining drivers of the global decline in fertility; Hoover History Lab student contributors present policy considerations for dealing with the “senior bulge” and an aging population; and Bill Whalen examines how recent developments in national politics may shape the political fight over California’s congressional redistricting ballot measure, as well as the state’s upcoming governor’s race.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
For a special episode of Economics, Applied—filmed against the scenic backdrop of Wyoming’s Teton mountain range, on location at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium—Senior Fellow and Director of Research Steven J. Davis speaks with Claudia Goldin, winner of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics and professor of economics at Harvard University. Davis and Goldin discuss “The Downside of Fertility,” Goldin’s essay presented at the policy conference. Goldin explains why fertility rates fell around the world as women gained greater agency in domains like marriage, reproduction, education, and labor markets. When women gain agency, Goldin argues that a “mismatch” between men and women in their expectations about child-rearing responsibilities leads to lower fertility. She also argues that this form of mismatch is more acute in the wake of sustained, rapid economic development, as women pursue newfound opportunities while many men cling to traditional views about marriage and child rearing. Watch or listen here.
For the first time in history, people ages 65+ outnumber young children, signaling a fundamental reversal from the prior "youth bulge" to a global "senior bulge." This profound demographic shift, driven by longer life expectancy and lower fertility, poses economic, political, and social challenges to all societies. A new report from Hoover History Lab student contributors Katharine Sorensen, Jonathan Cosgrove, Divya Ganesan, and Daniel Longo explores the senior bulge’s historical context and outlines several policy options for governments to adopt and proactively manage the complex realities of aging populations. The authors consider how increased migration could help to offset demographic decline, as well as the possible roles for robotics technologies to assist with elder care and labor force challenges. The paper emphasizes that, when addressing the costs of the senior bulge through policy, leaders should focus on the intersection of political, cultural, economic, and military trends. Read more here.
Politics, Institutions, and Public Opinion
In a post for California on Your Mind, Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen examines “how the ramifications of a heinous crime committed on a Utah college campus might find their way further west to California.” Whalen asks how the killing of Charlie Kirk may impact political events held on college campuses. “Will conservative activists now shy away from such public rallies? Will cash-strapped university administrations and local law enforcement step up their security efforts?” Whalen also examines how the public response to the crime may shape the rhetoric around campaigns on both sides of California Proposition 50, “California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s attempt to temporarily reconfigure California’s congressional districts so as to flip to the Democratic Party a handful of seats currently held by Republicans.” Whalen closes by looking at Senator Alex Padilla’s position in the Prop 50 debate and national politics, noting that California’s junior senator may enter the race for governor of the Golden State. Read more here.
Two recent blog posts from Senior Fellow Eugene Volokh examine Attorney General Pam Bondi’s statements on speech controversies following the murder of Charlie Kirk. First, Volokh links to an article from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, critiquing Bondi’s stated intent to “investigate and prosecute incidents of ‘hate speech.’” Second, Volokh analyzes the Justice Department’s move to investigate an incident “involving a Michigan Office Depot employee who refused to print flyers advertising a vigil for conservative activist Charlie Kirk.” Volokh writes, “no federal law, to my knowledge, purports to ban stores from discriminating based on the political expression of the material they’re asked to print.” He concludes that “it’s hard to see a credible legal basis for AG Bondi’s statements” expressing intent to prosecute individuals refusing printing services on political grounds. Read the post on hate speech here. Read the post on the printing incident here.
Security and Defense
In a post to the First Breakfast Substack, National Security Visiting Fellow Nadia Schadlow argues that seventy-five years after the introduction of the Defense Production Act (DPA), the industry-focused national security legislation requires updating. As she writes, “after dozens of reauthorizations, the DPA has lost its strategic focus, scattering resources across hundreds of disconnected projects.” Schadlow calls for a reconsideration of the Act’s scope, intended to tighten its focus on mitigating strategic vulnerabilities. She also suggests that an over-reliance on DPA grants could be corrected by drawing in private capital. Finally, Schadlow says that “implementation problems” in the DPA “must be fixed,” by activating provisions of the Act allowing consultation with non-governmental experts on technical problems. Schadlow concludes that with reforms, “the DPA can again help America outproduce its rivals.” Read more here.
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